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Container ship entering the port of Hamburg: shipping routes mixed up
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Construction Photography / Avalon / Getty Images
There are tons of orders, but the raw materials required for production are in short supply in many places after the Corona kink - also due to delays in global supply chains.
According to estimates by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), these bottlenecks are likely to cost the German economy around 25 billion euros in 2021.
In an analysis, the economists assume that the “burdens will only decrease slightly in the course of the third quarter and only then will there be a clear improvement”.
In the second quarter alone, German economic output is likely to have been depressed by around one percent due to the worsening delivery situation.
Catch-up effects meet high demand in the USA and China
Industry, but also many craftsmen, have been complaining for months that urgently needed raw materials and preliminary products are missing or delayed in delivery: chips for car on-board computers as well as insulating materials for construction sites or wood for furniture.
According to experts, the shortage is already slowing the recovery of the German economy after the corona pandemic - and could also change private consumer behavior over the long term.
According to the IfW, the reasons for the bottlenecks are complex.
On the one hand, the economic upturn in the USA and China is making many goods scarce and expensive.
On the other hand, the corona pandemic has shaken up global delivery routes in container shipping, and unpunctual ship arrivals have long been the order of the day.
"As soon as the supply bottlenecks are resolved, two factors will give industrial production a tailwind and will likely grow significantly faster than the new incoming orders for some time," predicts the IfW.
There will be catch-up effects as soon as the industry starts production again to the usual level.
"The current level of incoming orders suggests an increase in industrial production of around 10 percent."
In addition, there are catch-up effects as soon as the pent-up orders are processed.
"As a result, production will temporarily rise above its long-term normal level."
apr / dpa
