Annabella quiroga
07/05/2021 13:03
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/05/2021 1:58 PM
The week began with overheated alternative dollars: both the blue dollar and the cash with liqui are trading above $ 170. The informal one increases a peso and reaches
$ 171
, while the CCL, the operation to extract foreign currency from the country, It surpasses it and sells for
$ 171.2,
up 3% on the day.
For its part, the MEP dollar, which is traded on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, reaches
$ 168.4.
With this, the CCL becomes
the most expensive option on the market,
while the saving dollar, with taxes and surcharges, is obtained in banks at
$ 167
, which leaves it as the cheapest alternative.
The sustained rise in financial dollars confirms that the foreign exchange market overheats in the second half of the year.
But the situation is far from out of control:
the Central Bank has enough ammunition
to bring down financial dollars.
That is why it is most likely that in the early hours of the afternoon the CCL will go back and finish the wheel
below $ 170
.
This will happen if, as has been happening in recent weeks, the Central Bank goes out to sell government securities and thus pushes prices down.
So far this year the Central bought
US $ 6,500 million
and allocated about
US $ 1,000 million
to acquire bonds to sell them later and thus lower the prices of financial dollars.
With this mechanism, it seeks to prevent the blue dollar from shooting up and stretching the exchange gap with the official one beyond 75%.
Today it is at 78% compared to the official exchange rate.
The wholesale dollar is trading at
$ 95.90
, eleven cents above last Friday's close.
"With this dynamics of the exchange market, the BCRA continues its policy of mini devaluation of the official exchange rate, which started July with an annualized rise of around 11%," they point out from the Cohen group.
The retailer trades at
$ 101.22
on the Central average.
Yellow lights
In this context, country risk also rises, the JP Morgan indicator that measures the excess rate that Argentina should pay to borrow.
Increases 0.1%, to
1,591 basis points.
This reflects the price of Argentine bonds in dollars, which fell around 1%.
"The health of the exchange market begins to show
yellow lights
, with the country risk rising again to almost 1,600 basis points and a manifest pressure of the exchange gap," they indicate from the Cohen group.
"Specifically, despite the increasingly frequent official interventions in the bond market, the gap between the MEP and the official dollar reached 75%,
the highest since last November
," says Cohen.
On the side of the shares, the Merval is trading higher, with an increase of
1.5%.
In New York, Argentine ADRs move mixed, with jumps of up to 5% for Cresud and losses of 1.5% for Edenor.
Due to the holiday in the United States, today the operations are limited.
AQ
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