Annabella quiroga
07/13/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/13/2021 7:05 AM
This Monday the new rules of the Central Bank debuted to tighten the fence on the exchange market.
The first result of this "stocks in stocks" was that the blue dollar, which ordinary Argentines take as a thermometer of exchange rate stability, rose three pesos and
ended at $ 177
, which
brought the gap to 83% against the official exchange rate.
When the gap crosses 75% and remains at that level, alarms go off
because it begins to
impact the real economy
on several fronts.
These are the main keys to the impact that these changes will have in the medium term on the day-to-day activities of the activity.
Export under-invoicing
With an increasing gap,
the incentives to declare less
than what is actually exported
grow
in order
to charge part of the official dollar and the other at a more attractive exchange rate.
Last year, Customs detected 1,609 cases of under-invoicing of exports for a total amount of
US $ 238.42 million
.
The risk is that this year with the greatest gap, this trend will gain volume.
Overbilling imports
The gap works in the opposite direction for importers, who are tempted to declare more operations than they carry out to access more dollars at the official exchange rate, today at $ 96. This is further strengthened because the
Central Bank authorizes droppers purchases of foreign currency
from importers to take care of reserves.
In 2020, Customs detected 1,203 cases of overbilling of imports worth
US $ 98.76 million
.
Price pressure
If the rise of the blue dollar is sustained, there is a risk that price
makers will remarkably based on the evolution of the blue.
Another element that plays in favor of this dynamic is the difficulty that importers have in accessing the official dollar, which makes the blue become the benchmark dollar in the face of uncertainty.
More dollarization
There are less than 9 weeks until the STEP elections and as usual, in the run-up to the elections
the trend towards dollarization increases
.
If the gap grows, so does the appetite for the dollar.
And this feeds the gap.
"The government seeks to prevent the price of the dollar from rising, but the bad news is that now having dollars abroad is worth more than yesterday.
The market will already find a way to make them count," said economist Andrés Borenstein.
Take care of reservations
So far this year, the Central Bank bought
US $ 7,000 million
in the market and managed to grow net reserves by
US $ 3,000 million
.
With a stronger stocks, it seeks to take care of those reserves to use less dollars to intervene in the market.
This is relevant for the second half of the year because the period of strong foreign exchange liquidation by the countryside is over and now the lean season is starting.
AQ
Look also
After the new restrictions, the blue climbed to $ 177, its highest level in the year
Carlos Melconian: "This year's vote would have to give 100 to 0 in favor of 'don't lie to me anymore'"
