Daniel Fernandez Canedo
07/13/2021 18:52
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/13/2021 6:52 PM
The foreign exchange market entered the financial scenario forecast for the second part of the year very quickly.
It is a
tradition of the electoral years
that the dollarization process of the savings and investment portfolios are converted to
dollars as a refuge
to face the uncertainty of the elections.
This year that process has very particular characteristics beyond the general vision, inside and outside the government, that
dollarization will be intense
.
One of these peculiarities is that the government has already turned over the letter of its intention to increase the official dollar
below the rate of inflation
in an attempt, precisely, to moderate the rise in the cost of living index.
In Argentina the rise of the dollar drives
food prices
and that drags the indices.
A currency lag favors the
recovery of the purchasing power of wages and
pensions.
The government is in that process.
The dollar grows at 1% per month against an inflation of the order of 3%
while it encourages the reopening of joint ventures to establish higher salary increases and grants a $ 5,000 bonus to retirees to compensate them for the loss of assets against the inflation.
The electoral plan is in full swing and supported by a hold on
the dollar
fueled by the strong inflow of foreign currency provided by exports from the agricultural sector in the heat of high grain prices.
Already in July, and contrary to what was expected, the Central Bank continues to buy dollars from the countryside.
They go
almost US $ 775 million
in the month that bring the
net reserves to about US $ 7,000 million
.
Between grain and oil exports and the US $ 4.3 billion that will enter in August from the International Monetary Fund
As extraordinary income from the capitalization of the organism as a result of the pandemic, the government will make about
US $ 12,000 million that constitute an important reinsurance for exchange rate tranquility
and a spending capacity in the months remaining until the November elections.
With that approximate figure of
US $ 12,000 million
, absolutely unthinkable a year ago, it is understood why the experts bet on the anesthetized dollar until the end of the year since now is the time to give the "little machine" to print pesos.
Faced with this scenario, there are two questions: how much will the issue be and the possible impact on inflation?
And what will happen to the dollar after the elections?
Experts say that
the issuance will reach $ 1.5 trillion
and the Central Bank is prepared to do so based on the fact that it practically did not attend the Treasury in the first part of the year.
Regarding the inflationary impact, officials are betting that the greater amount of
pesos in the pockets of the people will
only compensate the consumption postponed by the long months of the pandemic and that, if it hits the indexes, it will be after five or six months when they have already past the elections.
But surprises can always arise and
Miguel Pesce
, head of the Central, sought to anticipate by recharging the exchange rate even more by limiting weekly operations to 50,000 nominal bonds in the "cash settlement" with the exchange bonds AL30 (local legislation) and GD30 ( foreign legislation).
It limits the dollar "cash with settlement" ($ 166.37) where "blank" operations of the companies take place and opens the door for a new type of dollar, the "senebi", where buyers and sellers reach a price in the that the intervention of the Central Bank does not participate.
The
"reloaded stocks"
with more limitations to operate with free dollar fired at the start to "blue" (it touched $ 179), a small market but that marks the sensitivity of the market.
The government intends to stop the widening of the
"gap" between the wholesale dollar and the free dollar
, which is at 75%, so that it does not reach 100% and the media claim that this level is similar to that of the hyper of 1989.
But, essentially, to prevent a widening of the gap from triggering devaluation expectations again for after the elections.
That is why the magnitude of
the pre-electoral dollarization process
becomes relevant.
According to economist
Carlos Melconian
, the Central would have to sell 80% of the dollars it bought in the first part of the year in the heat of the US $ 600 soybeans.
His colleague,
Marina Dal Poggetto
, pointed out that net reserves of around US $ 7,000 million would drop to US $ 3,000 million in December and, in his latest report,
Miguel Angel Broda
maintains that "they will fall again to US $ 2,400" by the end of the year. .
And what will the
US $ 4.3 billion that will come in from the IMF
in August
be spent
on?
In one part of the government they say they have no doubts:
US $ 1,900 million to pay the IMF in September
and in December there is another maturity with the agency of US $ 1,900 million.
So far they say they are enough but are insufficient to meet the obligations of the first quarter of 2022 that total about US $ 4,000 million.
In one part of the government they believe that the road to the elections, through portfolio dollarization, is paved but they know that the devil and friendly fire can put their tail in.