07/15/2021 9:39 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/15/2021 9:42 AM
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec)
will announce this Thursday the June inflation
that according to several private consultants and even the Government will
once again be above 3%:
The impulse to a greater extent will be given
by the price of the food that skyrocketed
after the end of the Maximum Prices program.
The Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, said a few days ago that he expects the inflation data for June
"to be similar to May" (3.3%) and that "over July it will continue on the path of reduction
.
"
The Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the Central Bank estimated that
the CPI was 3.2% in June, below the 3.3% registered by Indec in May
, and projected a
downward trajectory for the remainder of the year
.
The average year-on-year calculation was 48.4%, 0.1 point lower than that projected by the same survey the previous month.
For the Statistical Institute of Workers of the Metropolitan University for Education and Work (UMET),
inflation for the month of June was 3.3%, 0.4 points below the May record and 0.8 below the April.
For university study, which was increased over
the communications category
with a 7.1% increase.
Food and beverages again accelerated above average to 3.5%.
The end of the Maximum Prices program went hand in hand with price increases in food items that had had relatively few increases since the beginning of the pandemic, such as dairy products and infusions, which rose above 6% in June.
The increase in the food item was especially due to the increase in the prices of
beef after the "stocks" of exports.
According to different consultants, inflation in June will be noted above 3%.
Photo German García Adrasti
What do the specialists estimate?
In dialogue with Las Últimas Noticias, by AM 750, the rector of the UMET, Cecilia Cros, explained that
"the first months of the pandemic gave unusually low results
, that makes the year-on-year comparison a little higher.
If this downward trend is accentuated, next month's number should be lower
. "
Other consulting
firms
foresee a higher figure: for
Ecolatina, the CPI will reach 3.4%
with the suspension of the food price program as the main driver of increases.
For his part, Orlando Ferreres highlighted in his latest report that
"inflation for that month was 3.2% per month and registered a year-on-year growth of 46%."
From
Econometrica
, Ramiro Castiñeira pointed out that
the inflation forecast by the consultant for June is 3.2% and 50.2% in the year-on-year evolution
.
And Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, an economist at
Equilibra,
also
calculated a 3% increase for last month.
The Minister of Productive Development, Matías Kulfas, trusted that after the June data, the Government
"will continue working for a downward trend"
of the indicators and continued: "We seek harmony by taking care of the Argentine table and we have seen a greater moderation in the price of meat in the last days of June and beginning of July ".
Pablo Besmedirisnik, director of
Ivenomics, says that his estimate ranges between 3 and 3.6%.
“
The Government is making an important effort to anchor inflation through the exchange rate, tariffs and regulated prices
.
This in the short term, can have a positive effect but in the long term, it gives rise to a higher inflation ”, he pointed out.
In addition, the soaring of the blue dollar conspires against this reality, although it can be maintained until the elections.
Then it will depend on how the anchors and public policies play, "he told Clarín days ago.
Likewise, the
Fundación Libertad y Progreso (LyP)
predicted that
June
inflation
was 3%, that in six months of 2021 it accumulated 25.1% and that throughout the year it will be around 50%.
YN
Look also
Domestic staff: again, the salary is below the minimum wage
High inflation for a while: in a global survey they expect 48% for this year and 40% for 2022
