Daniel Fernandez Canedo
07/17/2021 12:21 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/17/2021 12:21 PM
The first definition that generated an echo came from Matías Kulfas when he defended the turn of the screw to close the stocks on the dollar:
"You have to manage a scarce asset
.
"
The market discounted it, but the Minister of Productive Development put on the table the official view that in the second part of the year and until the elections, they consider
the chances of more dollars entering
the Central Bank's reserves as very low.
It was after the Central Bank restricted the limits to buy and sell dollars in the circuit known as
"cash with settlement"
and the range of an economy that has fifteen different exchange rates was further expanded.
With everything more controlled,
the
blue
dollar
rose to $ 179
and the "sinebi" (bilateral negotiation system) was born in which the parties will agree on a free dollar price.
In this way, as Carlos Pérez points out in the latest report from the Capital Foundation, the market entered a second semester "longer in exchange terms" due to the scarcity of foreign exchange, deepening the
"gap vs. reserves" trade-off
.
From now on, if the Central Bank chooses to take care of the reserves by limiting imports, restricting the sale of the savings dollar, it must run the risk that
the gap with the free dollars, which is already at 75/80%
, will continue to escalate with the consequent effect on inflation and the expectation of an exchange rate jump after the elections.
Another possibility is that the Central chooses to use reserves to intervene in the "cash settlement", supply the demand of importers who will seek to advance operations, and sell
future dollars
to avoid a widening of the gap.
It is in this case that net reserves, which today are around US $ 7,000 million, would reach
US $ 3,000 million in December
, according to the consultants.
On this point, the sayings of the Minister of Economy became relevant regarding the need for the Government to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund at the end of the year.
For more,
the dollars are not enough
, unless Vice President Cristina Kirchner and Governor Axel Kicillof advance an idea of borrowing from
Russia
a part of the Special Drawing Rights that it will receive from the IMF.
In Martín Guzmán's vision, reaching an agreement with the IMF is essential to be able to face the US $ 19,000 million due next year and for this reason he warned: if we do not achieve it,
"we would face a very destabilizing situation
.
"
For this, he held talks last week with Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, and obtained a signal from the agency's spokesman,
Gerry Rice,
that Argentina will be able to access a
Credit of
Extended Facilities for a ten-year term
.
Kirchnerism wants it to be 20 years.
For a part of the Government, the path until the end of the year is defined: Kulfas emphasizes that there will be fewer dollars and that they will take care of the Central Bank's reserves, and
Guzmán works trying to generate positive expectations
for the markets regarding an agreement with the IMF in order to year, so as not to arrive in March with the rope around his neck.
In the first quarter of 2022, US $ 4 billion are due.
Politics is well known that the vice president does not want to talk about adjustment or possible agreement with the IMF in the months before the elections, considering them "piantavotos", even when
inflation of 50% is at the top of
people's
concerns
in most opinion polls.
That is why the version is running in the market that a part of the Government would be thinking of
requesting a loan from Russia
, which has some
US $ 650,000 million in reserves
, for a part of the Special Drawing Rights that it will receive for the capitalization of the IMF.
In this way,
US $ 4,300 million
would arrive in Argentina in August,
which will go to strengthen reserves and pay the IMF itself US $ 3,800 million, which expire until the end of this year.
Neither the extra US $ 12,000 million for exports from the countryside in the heat of good international prices, nor the extraordinary SDR of the IMF to meet the needs of the pandemic, would be enough for the Government to end the year with reserves without
tearing the bottom of the can
of dollars.
From now on, Government K will be able to try heterodox alternatives in the attempt to recreate some expectation that opens the panorama of an economy with
stagnation fatigue
and in a situation of permanent uncertainty.
