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Juan Vital Sourrouille, the creator of the Austral Plan, died: milestones of Raúl Alfonsín's minister, who dined a thousand times with him in Olivos

2021-07-22T05:57:06.219Z


His program that australized the economy lowered inflation from 30% a month to single digits. Yesterday it was recognized.


Ezequiel Burgo

07/22/2021 12:29 AM

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 07/22/2021 12:34 AM

Juan Vital Sourrouille belonged to a race of economists that is dying out in Argentina: he was someone qualified for the state bureaucracy, who

was silent after leading the economy

and a technician who did not conceive of reasoning the economy if it was not in a political context, being able to put yourself in the shoes of the decision maker. The first two features are rarely seen. Regarding the latter, on the other hand, there seems to be more awareness among economists who, little by little, are turning more and more to politics.

"My President had his attention focused on the military and not on the economy,"

he told a group of economists from Cambiemos who went to see him shortly before Mauricio Macri took office, to have a talk with them. "How well do you know your President?" He questioned them. Sourrouille said that it was a crucial aspect of the job of the Minister of Economy, to meet the President. He calculated that he

had dined a thousand times with Raúl Alfonsín in Olivos

while he was Minister of Economy.

Sourrouille did not graduate as an economist.

When he was studying at the UBA (for public accountant) the degree did not yet exist and he enrolled in one of Julio H. Olivera's courses.

He was a partner of Guillermo Calvo, among others.

Without being attracted to academic life, he quickly inserted himself into the

world of administration and public policy

.

In 1963 he joined the National Development Council as an economist, under the orbit of Roque Carranza.

Arturo Illia was the President and Conade would elaborate the first comprehensive development plan for the country from 1963-1983.

Planning in the economy is difficult and in Argentina more so.

Nobody thought that twenty years later the economy that the military would leave would be "600% inflation, a default and a total fiscal deficit of 12 points of GDP," recalls Ricardo Delgado, who wrote days ago in the newspaper El Economista a profile of the Sourrouille's work.

Three stars from economics and Harvard passed through that Conade:

Simon Kuznets, Wassily Leontief and Ricard Malon

.

Sourrouille got into the car and went to Boston to study with Mallon.

From there came a book called Economic Policy in a Troubled Society, the Argentine Case.

It was the year 1973. His main thesis was that the management of the Argentine economy could not adapt to the demands of society and this had repercussions in stagnation.

Back in Buenos Aires, Sourrouille was

director of Indec, worked at ECLAC

and, during the dictatorship, he taught at the Institute for Economic and Social Development (years later he would be its president).

There he taught and met economists like Roberto Lavagna.

At the end of the military, Sourrouille did not define himself as a radical or a Peronist.

But he did not hide that most of his contacts were related to Alfonsín.

In the '83 campaign, the racial candidate held a meeting with leaders of the economy of his party.

Inflation was 350% per year.

The meeting lasted eight hours and the candidate heard two proposals to lower prices.

That of Bernardo Grinspun, an economist of Illia's generation, and that of Sourrouille, who had been accompanied by Mario Brodersohn and Adolfo Canitrot.

The first prioritized neglecting the debt payment, going for "ours" and making the economy grow.

The youngest, criticized by Grinspun, spoke of a fiscal correction.

Alfonsín

chose Grinspun as minister

, prioritizing the ideology and principles of the old radicalism.

“Juan, I want you to take charge of the Planning Secretariat.

Also tell Canitrot ”.

Sourrouille summoned several names that he had recruited by then: José Luis Machinea, Ricardo Carciofi, Juan Carlos Torre, Jorge Gándara, Jorge Lucangeli, Carlos Bonvecchi, Roberto Da Bouza and Oscar Cetrángolo.

The Grinspun plan exploded and Alfonsín called Sourrouille.

"President, I see no guarantees for success," the economist told him when he was summoned.

"Neither am I Juan," Alfonsín replied.

"But let's fight and we are watching."

The Minister of Economy Juan Sourrouille receives the American banker David Rockefeller who attends, accompanied by the businesswoman Amalia Fortabat, on January 13, 1986. (Enrique Rosito / DyN)

In the summer of 1985, inflation fluctuated, with great volatility, between 30% and 40% per month.

The idea of

the Austral Plan would be born shortly after

, within the framework of a tour by Alfonsín to Washington. Argentina was one of the 34 democracies in the world and the Argentine president was recognized for it. Alfonsín spoke at the Capitol, in the gardens of the White House and, later, there was a meeting in the Oval Room where, on one side, the President, Dante Caputo and Juan Sourrouille were present. On the other, Ronald Reagan, James Baker and David Mulford. The machinery would begin to shape a monetary and stabilization reform that would be born in June 1985. All with the support of the Treasury and the IMF.

There are dozens of books and papers written about the Austral results.

But above all the forcefulness of a result:

inflation went from 35% per month to less than 2%

.

Alfonsín won the 1985 legislative elections by a greater difference than those of 1983.

Politics never stopped conditioning the economy and Sourrouille included, at those thousand dinners in Olivos, a president pressured by the security forces.

It was what he had modeled under the concept of a troubled society.

"If wages do not beat inflation it is my problem, but if inflation rises it is your problem, I do not care

," Saúl Ubaldini once told him.

Sourrouille said that he had dined a thousand times with Alfonsín at the Quinta de Olivos.

Sourrouille resorted to makeups such as

Plan Primavera and Australito

.

The economy had already begun to lose its anchors, further exacerbated by US rate hikes in the Paul Volcker era.

Yesterday the economist deserved the recognition of a large part of the profession.

Radicals, Peronists, Liberals, Orthodox.

How can it be if Alfonsín's economy ended up in hyperinflation?

Sourrouille withdrew from public debate, although he continued to investigate and talk with political leaders.

A few years ago he

battled colon cancer

.

He was beating him.

He was a fan of Banfield (of Adrogué).

In 1989 Alfonsín had to get rid of him because Eduardo Angeloz, a radical candidate who was competing with Carlos Menem, asked him to.

But was the hyper coming or not?

"A hyper is never predictable,"

says Juan Carlos De Pablo.

“The indicators were complicated, but it was not clear that a hyper was coming.

In any case, the intensity of what came had to do with that fatal decision that Alfonsín made against his will to put Juan Carlos Pugliese as Minister of Economy in March 1985. “With his phrase 'I spoke to them with my heart and they answered me with the pocket ', if there was any doubt that people were going to buy dollars, that was done right away ”.

The gap between the official dollar and the financial one reached 130%.

"Today in Argentina you have to suck plans like Austral."

Look also

Juan Vital Sourrouille, former key Minister of Economy of Raúl Alfonsín and creator of the Austral Plan, died

Juan Vital Sourrouille died, creator of the Austral Plan: this is how politicians fired him on the networks

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-07-22

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