Annabella quiroga
07/21/2021 12:54 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/21/2021 7:19 PM
The blue dollar closed at
$ 183
and consolidates the gap at 90% in relation to the official exchange rate.
The upward price was with a contrast: financial dollars, which opened 2% higher, closed without changes, due to the intervention of the Central Bank.
Thus,
the cash with liqui closed at $ 166 after touching $ 170 and the MEP at $ 165.8.
The wholesale dollar was up three cents to $ 96.37, bringing the retail average to $ 171.76, just up one cent.
This brings the savings dollar to $ 168.
The blue dollar has already risen 13 pesos so far this year:
is there room for it to continue rising?
Days ago, one of the candidates for deputy launched an unusual forecast for the currency.
The economist Roberto García Moritán, better known as "Pampita's husband," had said that "
blue can reach 400 mangoes"
after the elections.
Hours later he reflected that perhaps he had "exaggerated a bit" with this projection.
Analysts who follow the market day by day
do not dare to set a ceiling for the blue
, but agree that the tension will continue for several months.
"It is impossible to predict the ceiling of the blue, but it
will depend a lot on the monetary issue,
the Central Bank interest rate and the government's ability to show an economic plan, things that today seem absent," said Juan Ignacio Paolicchi , from the consulting firm Empiria.
For Matías Surt, an economist at Invecq, one of the central factors behind the rise in the blue was the change in the macroeconomy between the first and second half of the year.
"In the first we saw fiscal prudence because the government made an adjustment helped by the situation. And
that has been put aside for a month and a half
."
This
change in trend
is evidenced in a series of measures that the government has been taking.
Among them, the bonus for retirees and social plans, changes in the income tax and higher subsidies for electricity consumption in cold areas, Surt lists.
"The plan is to put money in people's pockets. In the second semester we see more pesos and less dollars because the seasonality of the harvest ends."
To this is added that "in the pre-electoral period all the guns will be aimed at
increasing the income of families
, in order to get a few more votes and the monetary issue will be the main financing mechanism for this greater deficit," says Paolicchi.
The little machine is back
"If the government turns on the emission machine again, it cannot complain about the dollar at $ 180,"
says Fernando Marull, from the FMyA consulting firm.
"It is not possible to know how much margin the blue has left to continue rising. In October of last year it touched $ 195, at today's prices it is
$ 270.
At that time the gap was 150%, if today we update for that gap it would arrive at
$ 240
", brand Surt.
While those could be the benchmarks, Surt emphasizes that last year blue made that leap
under more complex circumstances
than today.
"The Central Bank had net reserves at zero, it had no power to intervene in the market. Furthermore, the price of commodities was different and there was a stock of pesos that had been issued in the quarantine that generated very strong pressure."
Although more broadcasting is expected in this second semester, "it will not have the same power and speed as last year. Today
we are not in a scenario as uncontrolled
as last October," Surt insists.
Marull adds that in historical terms the current value of blue is below what it reached at the peak of the 2002 crisis. “The $ 4 of the dollar in May 2002 is equivalent to $ 190 today.
And the October level would be $ 250. "
"Nobody knows if the current level is cheap or expensive, what we can say is that it is high for a normal country.
This price is a reflection of economic uncertainty.
To the extent that the government does not generate confidence, both the dollar as the gap can continue to rise ”, highlights Marull.
AQ
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