Ana Clara Pedotti
07/21/2021 1:50 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/21/2021 2:55 PM
For the public accounts
the second semester started tight
.
So far this month,
the Central Bank transferred $ 130,000 million to the National Treasury
, as a profit
transfer
.
Thus, since the beginning of the year and although the bet was for moderation especially in the first months, the Central
already assisted the Treasury with $ 460,000 million, which represents 1.1% of GDP.
The initial objective for this year was to be able to finance the fiscal deficit with own resources, without needing the help of the monetary issue.
The economic team had partially succeeded, but
since the second half of June it had to appeal more often to the monetary authority
to address its needs.
Although an acceleration is seen in these aid, for analysts they still remain at
expected levels
within the context of what is projected for this year.
This Monday, the body chaired by Miguel Pesce reported that
it turned over $ 50,000 million on July 15, which was added to the $ 80,000 that had already been transferred at the beginning of the month.
Thus, in the first two weeks of July, the Treasury already demanded more than 44% than in the whole of last month and
almost four times what it had needed in May.
While the
temporary advances
have an annual cap, which cannot exceed 10% of the monetary base or 12% of the collection of the last twelve previous months,
the transfers of profits,
which are basically accounting gains resulting from the devaluation, which increases the value of international reserves measured in pesos, are the top of what was achieved in the fiscal year of last year, when they reached $ 522,558 million.
This acceleration in the need for assistance goes hand in hand with a
drop in the extraordinary income
that was achieved in the first months of the year as a result of the inflow of dollars from the field and the Wealth Tax, something that
will not be repeated.
in this second half. This is in addition to months in which the Treasury's financial needs are seasonally exacerbated.
"Behind this monetary dynamics is the fiscal one. It was projected that the fiscal dynamics of the second semester would be quite different from the one that occurred in the first. On the one hand, a context of weaker income and from the spending side, it
was I expected greater dynamism in social benefits,
indexed to the mobility formula, taking into account the higher nominality of the first half, "explained Martín Vauthier, from Anker Latin America.
The economist stressed that until December, the Treasury will face higher expenses related, on the one hand, to the
adjustment of pensions and social benefits
and, on the other, to the reactivation of public works, which began to be registered in June.
"Beyond the fact that this is something that is repeated every year, it is likely that in the pre-election months, and with the aim of putting money in people's pockets, we will have a
fiscal impulse
and the other side from the monetary point of view be a
larger issue of the Central to finance it,
"he said.
For his part, Martín Polo, from Cohen, said: "In the second semester spending will accelerate. The deficit for the first part of the year was 0.5% when the total projection for all of 2021 is 3.5 % of GDP. In other words,
there are still 3 points of GDP remaining to be spent and will be financed in part by the BCRA
. "
Polo explained that net financing in the capital market should be higher to
prevent issuance from spiking
, although these levels of assistance are still in the baseline scenario.
"Although Guzman aims to refinance the peso debt in the market, for now he has
not managed to surprise with good fiscal results
, to make the market accompany this financing,
taking pressure off the Central,
" he said.
According to a report by the consulting firm Equilibra, the expectation is that "the financial program in pesos will become extremely demanding in the second semester," when the Treasury will have to cover a primary deficit of $ 1.3 trillion, and the estimated maturities will be $ 2.3 trillion.
“With a performance similar to that of the first semester in terms of net financing (not so in rollover ratios given the higher financial burden),
the Central will have to assist the Treasury in about $ 900,000 million
.
The accumulated for the year would close with assistance from the BCRA to the Treasury for 2.9 points of GDP ”, they anticipated in the consulting firm.
NE
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