The economic team expects more 'noise' in the dollar and advances with silent measures

Juan Manuel Barca

07/21/2021 8:42 PM

• Clarín.com

• Economy

Updated 07/21/2021 8:42 PM

The Government took note of the change in mood in the foreign exchange market and began to prepare for a scenario of greater tension

.

The unstoppable rise of the blue in recent weeks - today it reached $ 183 - and to a lesser extent the parallel prices put into question the effectiveness of the latest regulatory measures to restrict operations with financial dollars.

The tensions put the entire economic team of the cabinet on guard.

One of the main heads of the Ministry of Economy, headed by Martín Guzmán, acknowledged in the last hours that there is "a little more noise"

in the exchange market in the run-up to the elections.

The reading is that there is a "rearrangement" of the markets.

In Economics, they are closely following the

devaluation of the real in Brazil

, which has left the currency in a better position among emerging markets in recent times.

On Monday it was devalued by 2%.

But they also watch with concern the beginning of a second semester that will bring a lower income of dollars from the harvest and will limit the purchases of foreign currency by the Central Bank.

In July, the entity chaired by Miguel Pesce bought US $ 1,000 million and accumulated a total of $ 7,400 million.

That is the net balance after intervening in the bond market to contain the gap between the wholesale dollar and the financial dollar.

Some operators estimate that the BCRA would sell more than US $ 300 million per month.

The government also knows that it has firepower.

"

The situation is still under control, we do not see any tension,

" said Guzman's man.

"

An important cushion was put together by the Central Bank to deal with any concerns in the market,

" he explained.

This Wednesday the reserves exceeded US $ 43,000 million.

"There are spikes in volatility but there is no significant risk," he added.

With the reinforced stocks,

the Central Bank indicates that "the tool that is usually used to control the exchange rate is the purchase and sale of bonds

in dollars."

But since access to the parallel market was restricted, the pressures moved to the blue, where the gap with the official jumped from 73 to 90%.

And greater tensions are expected in the coming weeks.

The exchange issue would have appeared this Wednesday at the cabinet meeting, after which

the head of the AFIP, Mercedes Marcó del Pont, minimized the impact of the rise in the dollar

that is being negotiated in the caves.

"It is an illegal market, with few movements it reacts to the rise or fall, it affects expectations, but not in the operation of the world of production," he said.

The blue became a headache already in the last term of Cristina Kirchner and generated a tough dispute within the cabinet.

After the departure of Martín Redrado from the BCRA, Marcó Del Pont assumed his position and was in charge of implementing the stocks as of 2011. As then, he believes that the situation is within schedule. 

"Always in the electoral stages these movements occur in alternative markets, and what we maintain is that today

the Central Bank has absolute back and degrees of freedom to guarantee exchange rate stability, there is no prospect of any shock

before or after the elections" , he assured in Casa Rosada.

Meanwhile, the government advances in silent measures.

In the automotive sector, they assure that they began to receive inquiries from the

Ministry of

Industry

to postpone import payments to 120 days

, something that they deny from said department of the Ministry of Productive Development.

In this way, US $ 21,358 million have already been spent in the first five months of the year.

According to the Capital Foundation, in the second half of the year US $ 1,000 million would also be lost due to the intervention in the gap and US $ 9,000 million due to the payment of debt to organizations and private parties, while US $ 4,350 million of SDR from the IMF will enter and about US $ 16,000 million for exports.

Thus,

the net reserves would end at the end of the year at around US $ 3,700 million.

Look also

The blue dollar was at $ 183: is there room for it to continue increasing?

Economic activity fell 2% in May: they believe it has already reached a floor