Natalia Muscatelli
07/24/2021 17:56
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/26/2021 8:18 AM
In July,
the blue dollar increased by $ 15 (reached $ 185), rose 8% and widened the gap against the wholesale dollar to more than 90%
and to almost 82% against the retail one
.
How will this rise in the US currency impact inflation?
For some analysts, the impact will be limited because they estimate that
the Government will continue to iron the official dollar as reinsurance of the exchange rate anchor.
Although they warn that another factor that could hit prices more is the reopening of the parity companies.
However, other experts warn that the fluctuation of the foreign currency in recent days
puts a question mark on the expectation of a slowdown in inflation
that was expected until the elections.
"Clearly, the rise in the dollar has an impact on retail prices because it is the counterpart of the weakness in the demand for pesos," explains economist Federico Furiase, director of Anker Latin America.
"What we are going to see in the second semester is
a lower supply of dollars due to the seasonality of the harvest and more pesos in the streets
due to the government's more expansive policy in the face of the elections."
"
This is going to put a high floor on inflation, even in a context where there is an expectation of a temporary slowdown
because the official dollar and rates are being trampled on," he says.
According to Andrés Borenstein, chief economist at Econviews, the impact of the rise in the dollar this month “
is relatively small, although something has an impact.
This occurs above all
due to inflationary expectations and also because many merchants and industrialists can increase their products in order to "cover" themselves
against the situation. That is, they go to the dollar or retain stock as a store of value. "It is also seen that even service providers take these prices as a reference on many occasions," said the economist.
Also for the economist Martin Vaughtier,
the impact is limited. "In any case, we are already seeing the effect of the tensions in the exchange market and the weak demand for pesos.
This is seen in an inflationary inertia that is very high and in the difficulties that inflation has to pierce the bottom. current in the 3% zone despite the exchange rate anchor, the official exchange rate that is moving less than 1% per month, the rate anchor and the Government's attempts to control prices together with the easing of imports that was seen in the last few months. "
According to Lorena Giorgio, an economist at the Equilibra consultancy,
the impact of the gap on prices is usually marginal.
Access (or not) to dollars is more relevant to import, for example.
And so far,
we do not see that the tap on imports has been turned off too much
as expected.
In other words, the movements of recent weeks in alternative markets should not have a significant impact on inflation. "According to the analyst, the difficulty of having multiple gaps that continue to widen comes from the other side: the
ability to generate foreign exchange, to attract investment and to grow, "he
pointed out.
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