Juan Manuel Barca
07/26/2021 8:22 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/26/2021 8:22 PM
The Government decided to accelerate one of the definitions that threatened to hinder the campaign and sent a strong signal in the last hours:
there will be no default with the IMF and in September the maturity of US $ 1.88 billion will be paid
with part of the US $ 4.35 billion. that Argentina will receive in the coming weeks for the reallocation of special drawing rights (SDR).
"The SDRs are supposed to arrive towards the end of August or September, perhaps part of it will be used to cancel at least the first maturity," confirmed official sources.
In this way, it seeks to
"reassure"
the economy - a recurring motto of the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán - in the midst of a scenario of strong exchange rate pressures.
The decision represents a
departure from the draft declaration promoted in May by Oscar Parrilli
in the Senate, which requested Guzmán to use SDRs to deal with the pandemic.
And it contrasts with the letter of May 25 in which a sector of the ruling party proposed to suspend payments for principal and interest with the IMF and the Paris Club while the health emergency extends.
Those proclamations never went beyond the symbolic.
But after the unstoppable rise of the blue that catapulted it to $ 185 and questioned the stability of the exchange rate prior to the STEP of September, Cristina Kirchner took advantage of a launch ceremony for the Frente de Todos candidates last weekend to
clear uncertainty.
“Last night (on Friday) Alberto told me that in a few days the Drawing Rights will enter.
The IMF decided to give dollars to the countries due to the ravages of the pandemic.
We will not be able to
because in 2018, after we had a country without debt in 2015, we now owe 45 billion dollars to the IMF, in addition to the 70 thousand that the debt was restructured last year, "said the vice president. .
His gesture coincided with the
agreement reached in the previous days between Axel Kicillof and GoldenTree Asset Management,
an important creditor of the Province, to get out of default.
And it was followed by other signs within the ruling party.
The Buenos Aires Minister of Production, Augusto Costa, told Clarín at the weekend that he supports an agreement that is "reasonable and payable."
The definition was rushed after Guzmán's vote last week in favor of SDRs strengthening the reserves of the Fund's member countries.
Those assets will now be used
to pay the capital maturity of September and perhaps that of December for another US $ 1.88 billion.
In addition, US $ 345 million of interest matures in August and US $ 370 million in November.
But the reinforcement will not be enough to
cover payments for the first quarter of 2022 of US $ 3,582 million
.
For this reason, specialists believe that the measure will allow to continue negotiating until March, the term foreseen to agree on a program with the Fund as agreed with the Paris Club, whose creditors will receive a first payment of US $ 230 million this Wednesday.
"The foreseeable impact is that it is favorable to expectations because the government clears up an unknown. Also, if the situation continued, it would get complicated with the Paris club," said Ricardo Carciofi, former director for Argentina before the IDB in Washington.
The sharp fall in Argentine bonds and the country risk of more than 1,600 points did not help lower expectations of default either.
With this decision, there will no longer be doubts.
"I don't think the government has seriously considered the possibility of going into default with the IMF,
even less before the elections," said Héctor Torres, former Argentine representative before the organization. He added: "Postponing the agreement with the IMF until after the elections prevents us from using SDRs to finance expenses related to the pandemic, it is unfortunate that we have lost so much time."
Other economists argue that the use of SDRs could help stabilize the economy in a second semester in which lower dollar revenues are expected from the soybean harvest and the abandonment of the fiscal adjustment. "It seems correct to me,
shows a certain prudence not to try to spend those special drawing rights on current expenses, it
could bring some calm," said Guido Lorenzo, director of LCG.
For the founder of Equilibra, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, Kirchnerism sent two signals destined to calm the turbulent waters of the parallel market.
"Kicillof's settlement for the province's default and Cristina's statements not to use the SDR for the social situation are two clear signs that seek to show some rationality because exchange rate stability is needed in the elections," said the economist.
Look also
Álvarez Ágis: "I can't imagine Cristina Kirchner thinking of a default with the IMF"
Dollar: Today's $ 185 is 2002's $ 4, is there room for another run?
