Juan Manuel Barca
08/01/2021 21:20
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/01/2021 21:20
The increases in August will hit the pockets and put the official strategy to the test.
These are the increases
in prepaid, CNG, rents and expenses, items that will put more pressure on an inflation that already borders 50% per year
.
Thus, the Government will maintain its plan to step on the dollar and the rates in order to contain prices before the elections.
In the first six months, accumulated inflation was 25.3%. In July, analysts expect inflation of between 2.6 and 3.5%, adding up to around 29% since January. Thus, the projected goal for all of 2021 was exhausted much earlier than expected.
Now, in the official dispatches they believe that July will yield a result lower than the rise of 3.2% in June and they expect 40% in the year
.
Despite the fact that several economists point out that it is necessary to face "shock" measures in the style of the Austral Plan - as
Clarín
reported on Sunday
-
the economic team decided to deepen gradualism
.
A less ambitious course than the failed price and wage agreement launched in February at the request of Cristina Kirchner, but with the same purpose: to get to November without shaking.
Within this scheme it is central to keep the dollar calm
.
Although last week the Central Bank accelerated the depreciation margin of the peso, July closed with a rise of 1%, again behind inflation.
The monetary authority also reduced issuance in the first half.
Both policies aim to slow down inflation, but it has been complicated since July.
Increased spending, issuance and exchange rate pressures lit yellow lights.
"There is a combination of inflationary inertia and low demand for money,
people do not want to keep pesos beyond what they need; and second, some increases are postponed and that generates another future inflationary pressure," explained
Daniel Marx, former head of the BCRA and former Secretary of Finance
.
After having reached the peak of $ 185 last week, there was a respite and the blue cut $ 5 in the last days.
The cost was the intervention of the BCRA with the sale of more than US $ 300 million of reserves.
The scenario is still challenging.
With the anchors on the exchange rate and tariffs at the limit, the increases in August could add new tensions
on prices.
"The change that the government validated with
the authorizations, for example of increases in prepayments
, and parity above 40%
will push inflation up and counteract the exchange rate anchor and the freezing of the main services,
" said
Claudio Caprarulo
, Director of
Analytica
. The consulting firm estimates 3.4% inflation for July.
The other bet is to contain the prices with more agreements and controls
.
Ecolatina estimates a rise of 2.6% in July
thanks to the few increases in regulated items and seasonal factors
.
Within food and beverages, meat would have slowed down in July, with the wholesale price being transferred to butchers.
Such an anchor, however, would not be enough.
"
Knowing that there are increases agreed
with core inflation still above 3%,
that could determine that August will be slightly higher than July,
" said
Agostina Myronec, an analyst at Ecolatina
.
The consulting firm forecasts an annual inflation of 48%, in line with the estimate released by the Central Bank, and an average from July to December of 2.8% per month.
In the Government they expect inflation to fall to 2% per month this year and foresee a recovery greater than the 7% expected.
"
There will be more pro-consumption and pro-income movements,
" they say.
Health closed a salary increase of 45% last Friday, tied to the rise in prepaid.
On the other hand, the President will announce this Monday the
expansion of the Now 12 program
.
But analysts warn that inflation will remain high.
In the last decade, according to IERAL, prices rose one notch with each administration
: in the first 18 months of the current government, the monthly variation of the CPI was 3.025%, with an annualized rate of 43%;
above 24% during the mandate of Cristina Kirchner and 32.2% in that of Mauricio Macri.
The increases in August
* The Executive authorized an increase in the
prepayment fees of
9% from August 1, 9% from September 1, 9% from October 1 and 9 from October 1 January 2022.
* The price of a cubic meter of
CNG will
increase between $ 2 and $ 3 in August to be sold at an average of $ 40 in the AMBA service stations.
In November it will be the last increase, between $ 1 and $ 1.5.
In April, it already increased 5%.
* Due to the
Rentals
Law
, new contracts signed in August of last year must be updated according to the Index for
Rental
Contracts (ICL), published daily by the Central Bank and which would range between 44 and 46%.
* The
July
expenses
that are paid in August will come with increases for the goalkeepers' parity (Suterh), who agreed to a 44.8% increase.
Look also
With inflation at 50%, they already propose a shock plan such as Austral or the 1 to 1
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