Ana Clara Pedotti
08/06/2021 9:35 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/06/2021 9:40 AM
Bank credit to companies can be a
good barometer of the country's activity.
And, in July, despite a general decline in real terms for the eighth consecutive month, there was a positive sign.
For the first time in nine months, there were some lines for companies that grew
above inflation.
The
advances and documents,
the form of financing in pesos used by companies to finance, last month recorded the
average jump of 15% and 2.6%, respectively.
These advances move above the monthly inflation that the different consulting firms project for the seventh month of the year and may be a first sign of reactivation.
The recovery of this type of loans may be a sign that
activity is beginning to normalize after the restrictions
that took place due to the second wave of the coronavirus in the second quarter of this year.
For example, the line of advances did not achieve a real double-digit increase
since the first months of the ASPO
, when companies rushed to take credit, especially those promoted by the government, as a way to get ahead of the economic downturn.
However, a swallow does not make a summer:
credit to the private sector accumulates eight consecutive months of real fall.
"Unlike other crises, loans to the real sector of the economy have not recovered since May 2018, the month in which the exchange rate crisis began as a result of pressures on the financial system," they highlighted in the consulting firm LCG.
And they added:
"Currently the loans represent 58% of that amount
and after 38 months there are still no signs of recovery."
Although the numbers of commercial loans during the past month are not conclusive, they suggest the possibility that in terms of activity,
the third quarter of the year will exceed the previous one.
"Commercial credit to companies, which
between December and May had stagnated in nominal terms
, that is, falling sharply in real terms, in June and July has started to expand at a monthly rate somewhat higher than 5% nominal," analysts highlighted by IERAL.
In a joint report, Jorge Vasconcelos and Guadalupe Gonzalez, from Fundación Mediterránea, where they review the different economic indicators that could show a reactivation in the second half of the year, stated: "This
incipient improvement on the credit side
seems to be accompanied by an increase monthly card consumption, in July compared to June, according to different sources in the sector ".
For his part, Guillermo Barbero, from First Capital Group agreed: "The last two months show us a reactivation of credit, and we must also highlight that the growth of loans to the productive sector represents
practically the entire growth of total loans."
NE
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