Ana Clara Pedotti
08/08/2021 20:11
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/08/2021 20:24
Until July,
the investments
that made it possible to preserve the purchasing power of money were tied to the evolution of
prices
.
But that equation could
change
if it is confirmed that the inflation data that the INDEC will report this week manages to
pierce the 3% floor
, as the Government has advanced in recent days and has also been projected by different consulting firms
.
According to the
Market Expectations Survey (REM),
since last month, and
until December
, inflation could be below
3% per month.
This would make
the rates of
traditional
fixed terms
stop looking
so negative:
with an
annual
TNA of
37%
, the monthly yield of this type of deposit
barely reaches 3.08%
, so in most months of this year they
lost
against inflation.
But this slowdown in prices can change the dynamics and cause both types of bank loans to present
"tied"
monthly returns
.
Additionally, the fixed terms UVA
They have
"a counter"
and that the minimum time for which should be frozen and
l
money deposited is
90 days.
Thus, if these estimates are correct, making a deposit tied to inflation in the second week of August can result in a
gain close to 8.2%
payable next November.
To this must be added the
1% nominal annual rate
with which some banks remunerate these fixed terms.
But immobilizing savings in a period of pre-election volatility can be a
bad idea
. "A saver seeking inflationary coverage can obtain it
without having to immobilize the deposit for 90 days
as required by the fixed term UVA. A
common investment fund
that has a strong composition of bonds and bills that
adjust for CER
fulfills the same inflationary coverage function. than the UVA deposit but, unlike the latter, it is usually more liquid: the saver can get his money back in at most two days, "explained
Juan Pablo Albornoz
, from
Ecolatina
.
The Government aims to keep the exchange rate
held back
between now and November and in the City they believe that it will achieve it: according to REM economists, the official dollar will
increase by 9% until December
and thus the wholesaler will go from
$ 98 to $ 107
in the last month of the year.
In this way, the few savers who can still access the official exchange market, would get profits with the greenback
just over 5%
.
The great uncertainty is in what can happen with the
parallel
quotes
.
So far this year, both
the blue dollar and financial dollars lagged behind
domestic prices
:
the free dollar added
8%
in the first eight months
;
while the cash with liquid and the MEP dollar advanced just over
21%
.
Look also
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