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Inflation or dollar? A tight bet in the run-up to the elections

2021-08-09T00:01:57.343Z


According to the Central Bank's survey of expectations, prices will slow down and the official exchange rate will remain stationary. Is a fixed term UVA convenient?


Ana Clara Pedotti

08/08/2021 20:11

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 08/08/2021 20:24

Until July,

the investments 

that made it possible to preserve the purchasing power of money were tied to the evolution of

prices

.

But that equation could

change

if it is confirmed that the inflation data that the INDEC will report this week manages to

pierce the 3% floor

, as the Government has advanced in recent days and has also been projected by different consulting firms

.

According to the

Market Expectations Survey (REM), 

since last month, and

until December

, inflation could be below

3% per month.

This would make

the rates of

traditional

fixed terms

stop looking

so negative:

with an

annual

TNA of

37%

, the monthly yield of this type of deposit

barely reaches 3.08%

, so in most months of this year they

lost

against inflation.

But this slowdown in prices can change the dynamics and cause both types of bank loans to present

"tied"

monthly returns

.

Additionally, the fixed terms UVA

They have

"a counter"

and that the minimum time for which should be frozen and

l

money deposited is

90 days.

Thus, if these estimates are correct, making a deposit tied to inflation in the second week of August can result in a

gain close to 8.2%

payable next November.

To this must be added the

1% nominal annual rate

with which some banks remunerate these fixed terms.

But immobilizing savings in a period of pre-election volatility can be a

bad idea

. "A saver seeking inflationary coverage can obtain it

without having to immobilize the deposit for 90 days

as required by the fixed term UVA. A

common investment fund

that has a strong composition of bonds and bills that

adjust for CER

fulfills the same inflationary coverage function. than the UVA deposit but, unlike the latter, it is usually more liquid: the saver can get his money back in at most two days, "explained

Juan Pablo Albornoz

, from

Ecolatina

The Government aims to keep the exchange rate

held back

between now and November and in the City they believe that it will achieve it: according to REM economists, the official dollar will

increase by 9% until December

and thus the wholesaler will go from

$ 98 to $ 107

in the last month of the year.

In this way, the few savers who can still access the official exchange market, would get profits with the greenback

just over 5%

.

The great uncertainty is in what can happen with the

parallel

quotes

.

So far this year, both

the blue dollar and financial dollars lagged behind

domestic prices

:

the free dollar added

8%

in the first eight months

;

while the cash with liquid and the MEP dollar advanced just over

21%

.

Look also

Even with the dollar pressed, inflation in July would be 2.9%

Pessimism in the field: most growers believe 2022 will be worse

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-08-09

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