Annabella quiroga
08/10/2021 2:13 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/10/2021 2:15 PM
The blue dollar yields 50 cents this Tuesday and stands at
$ 178.50.
With this value the gap with respect to the official reaches 84%.
And with this level, the informal one is still the most expensive in the market,
10 pesos above the saving dollar.
At the opening of the wheel, the cash with liquid increased 0.9% to
$ 172.5
, while the MEP dollar fell 0.1% to
$ 169.7.
As for the official dollar, in the wholesale segment it is listed at
$ 97.03.
The retailer averages $ 102.3, bringing the savings dollar to $ 168.7.
So far this month
the official exchange rate has risen just 0.4%
, while financial dollars have already advanced 1%.
The informal sector, for its part, fell 0.8%.
But when you measure the variation so far this year, the official increased 15%;
the financial, 21%, and the informal, 7%.
With these levels, the currency reaffirms its role as the exchange rate anchor: in the same period, inflation rose 30%.
In this way,
the rise in prices takes advantage of all variants of the dollar.
The rate of rise of the official dollar is going to limit month by month.
Last year the currency advanced 60%, but as of February of this year the Central Bank began to tighten the reins.
Thus, it went from a rise close to 3% per month to 1% in July.
And this month
it slows down even more.
Minister Martín Guzmán ratified last week that the official dollar will reach
$ 102.40
in December
.
"What the exchange policy scheme establishes is that the rate of evolution of the exchange rate be maintained, which seeks to converge an average exchange rate for the month of December of $ 102.40. Today we have the conditions for this scheme to be effectively consistent from the macroeconomic point of view, "said Guzmán.
Dollar at the end of the year
If the forecast comes true, this implies that the wholesale dollar
will rise just $ 5.40 in the remainder of the year
.
To prevent the currency from escaping beyond this level, the Central Bank will have to supply the market with a larger portion of the reserves than it has been using up to now.
Based on the purchases made by the Central in the first seven months of the year, net reserves remained stable at
US $ 7.5 billion.
The consulting firm FMyA explained that last month the Central used US $ 200 million to cover the new bonds exchanged, another US $ 227 million to pay the Paris Club and about US $ 300 million to control cash cash.
While the Government reaffirms that the official dollar will barely move between now and December, analysts point out that with the elections in between, the "free" dollars will continue to push upward.
"In short, that today in Argentina the free dollar is trading at $ 180, a price that is historically high, reflects more than anything
the lack of perspective with which economic agents are operating,
" warns economist Fernando Marull.
For the director of the consulting firm FMyA, behind this lack of perspective are "the lack of an economic plan, a fiscal order and an abuse in the use of the little machine, which continues to pour large amounts of pesos into the economy, contained thanks to the stocks exchange rate, but that
is reflected in the rise of the free dollar
. "
Marull points out that "a good result in the elections and an eventual agreement with the IMF can bring some calm."
But he warns that "the current economic imbalances seem consistent with a dollar of $ 180. And even one notch higher as well."
AQ
Look also
The Government will arrive in December with the Central Bank's reserves adjusted
Even with the dollar pressed, inflation in July would be 2.9%
