Juan Manuel Barca
08/17/2021 14:30
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/17/2021 2:30 PM
The reloaded stocks increased uncertainty
in the market.
The decision of the Central Bank to authorize only operations with cash with settlement (CCL) and MEP dollar with its own bank accounts (and not those of the Stock Exchange companies) confirmed the greater exchange rate pressures
and added tensions to the five indicators
that at this time both analysts and the government monitor to anticipate dollar movements.
1. Fewer reservations available
One of the main objectives of the latest restrictions was to avoid a further drain on reserves. If the Central Bank has to sell more dollars or faces higher debt payments, that affects the available stock.
A net reserve level of less than US $ 7 billion is already lighting a warning light
. According to EcoGo, net reserves have already fallen by US $ 630 million from the peak of US $ 7.3 billion in July.
"Clearly new restrictions imply a value of the gap that will be higher to be able to access foreign currency, given the higher cost involved in the operation.
Its effect is not neutral and implies greater pressure on reserves, where access to the official dollar it becomes more and more valuable,
"said
Sebastián Menescaldi
, director of
EcoGo
.
For the consulting firm, the fall in net reserves marks a "change of time" due to the sales of the BCRA in the single exchange market at the end of July, the cancellation of foreign debt and the increased pressure to contain financial dollars at bay. .
"Likewise, net reserves would end the month above US $ 10 billion due to the arrival of the SDRs," he said.
The SDRs are the Special Drawing Rights that the IMF will distribute to all its members.
Argentina has US $ 4,300 million.
2. Larger exchange gap
The measures of last Thursday against the curl that was made through the stock companies had an impact on the parallel prices.
The cash with liqui (CCL) fell this Tuesday to $ 164 and the MEP rose to $ 171.
"
On Friday what was seen was a drop in the regulated CCL and a rise in the free CCL because
the measures were made to not sell so many dollars
, to control it, "explained
Fernando Marull
, a partner at
FMyA
.
The blue rose this Tuesday to $ 183 after jumping $ 4 on Friday and the gap with the official is already 87%, a level that put the market on alert again.
"This measure -as well as the regulation associated with the limit of 50,000 weekly nominals-
causes a greater segmentation of the market and therefore there is a greater gap
with the blue and the SENEBI (the dollar that is privately agreed between parties" said
Juan Pablo Di Iorio
, an economist at
ACM
.
In the Central, they assure that the gap is controlled "intervening" in the CCL and that the regulation is to defend the reserves.
But Di Iorio warned that the entity headed by
Miguel Pesce "loses power of intervention so the market could become more volatile
.
"
"This is due to the fact that a good part of the demand was directed to markets in which the BCRA
cannot intervene directly,
" he added.
3. Less purchases of foreign exchange
Another fact that
came into risk zone
is the balance between buying and selling dollars monetary authority to the private sector. After a season of strong export liquidation and import release,
purchases went from US $ 900 million in the first two weeks of July to US $ 200 million in the same period of August
.
"Purchases are weak. In July, it bought US $ 700 million in the official market and sold US $ 400 million in parallel (through bond operations). And in the first half of August, it bought only US $ 200 million and sold US $ $ 180 million.
Conclusion: shortly if it continues like this, there will be more stocks for the official. They prefer that to accelerate the devaluation
", predicted Marull, referring to possible obstacles in imports, tourism and dollar savings.
4. Dollar trodden
One of the goals set by the government this year was to
step on the dollar to contain inflation
. Thus, the dollar rose less than 1% in July, behind inflation of 3%. In Miguel Pesce's team they believe that there is still room to sustain this policy, without there being a significant jump. And analysts expect this trend to be accentuated in the face of the elections, although they see that it will be more complicated with a lower level of reserves.
"
The issue to monitor is the real exchange rate, which remains at high but not crazy levels like the ones we saw in October 2020.
The key continues to go through the global context, that is to say that there is no disruptive event on the part of the Fed or China that alters the global board. A strong global dollar is the main fear that a country like Argentina has to have, "said
Leonardo Chialva
, director of
Delphos
investment.
5. increases the release
The pesos that circulate are also cause for concern due to their possible impact on the dollar and prices.
Since July, the BCRA came to the rescue of the Treasury with $ 340,000 million, an assistance almost equal to that of the entire first semester.
The higher issuance reflects the difficulties in financing the deficit with own resources and the question is
whether these pesos can be absorbed to avoid greater pressure on the exchange rate.
NE
Look also
The blue dollar rises to $ 183 amid expectations due to the impact of the new measures
Dollar: expect few cash operations with liquid but strong demand for blue
