Consumers could see the price of pasta increase in the coming weeks.
French manufacturers are indeed warning of an upcoming shortage of durum wheat, the only raw material for pasta, caused by climatic hazards in Canada and Europe.
The public authorities are called upon to come to the aid of the industry.
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"
Climate change endangers the pasta market
," warned Sifpaf (union of industrial pasta manufacturers) and CFSI (French committee for industrial semolina), in a joint press release released Monday evening.
Canada, leading wheat producer, suffered from drought
The durum wheat shortage is the result of "
far too heavy rains in Europe"
and "
unprecedented drought in Canada
".
Canada alone accounts for two-thirds of the world durum wheat trade as the world's largest producer.
The effects of the weak Canadian harvest are therefore expected to be felt globally and lead to a “
historic surge in world prices
”.
The "
exceptional drought
" which affected the country, "
should lead to a harvest (...) of less than 4.2 million tonnes, 32% less than the average of the last five years and nearly 30% of less than forecast for July 20,
”according to figures from the Canadian statistical office StatCan. "
With a historically low stock, it will not be possible to supply the world market with stored
durum
wheat
", alarmed industrial pastiers and semolina.
Manufacturers are warning of a possible increase in prices for consumers.
"
We will not have a choice, the price of pasta will have to increase on the shelf,
" explains François Rouilly, CEO of Panzani.
He also stresses that this increase, "
of a few cents
", should not significantly burden purchasing power.
Regarding a possible shortage in the shelves, François Rouilly considers this concern premature: "
at some point, we may have to make arbitrations
", he nevertheless indicated.
Domestic production struggles
The difficulties encountered in Canada cannot be offset by the European and French harvests. The press release from Sifpaf and CFSI mentions "
an insufficient harvest in Europe with 7.3 million
tonnes
for a requirement of 9.5 million
tonnes". In France, the market was also durably affected by the unfavorable weather. The union's statement thus evokes: "
particularly abundant rains during flowering and during harvest, greatly reducing the usable potential of French durum wheat for making pasta
".
Knowing that "
only a third of wheat production is intended for the domestic market
", according to Christine Petit, general secretary of the Sifpaf union, producers would lack two million tonnes of wheat to meet demand.
Another cause for concern is the quality of the wheat harvested. France Agrimer predicts in particular that some durum wheat could "
be downgraded to feed wheat
" more used for animal feed, if they do not meet the criteria required for the production of pasta, according to the press officer of the organization. A great heterogeneity is also observed between the regions. In a statement released yesterday, the agricultural office noted a withdrawal of durum wheat areas of 11% in 2021, compared to the five-year average. National production is expected to reach 1.6 million tonnes. Yields are up 20% compared to 2020, but down 6% compared to the 2016-2020 average.
Between mid-July and mid-August, the world reference price for durum wheat underwent “
a historic increase of more than 30% in a few weeks, an increase which could further accelerate sharply when Canada has finished harvesting and confirm a global shortage of durum wheat
”, according to manufacturers.
For a ton of durum wheat, the price index calculated by Sifpaf was already around 326 euros on average in July, against 305 euros in June and 293 euros in May.
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In this context, producers are asking the public authorities to put in place "
an emergency plan
" to enable them to ensure their supply of French wheat and to ensure that distributors pass on "
the explosion in the price of durum wheat. in selling prices to get through this exceptional crisis
”. Pasta makers in Europe could finally "
stop supplying the most struggling markets
", as was the case in 2007.
