Due to the IMF turnaround, the Government got oxygen only until the end of the year

Juan Manuel Barca

08/23/2021 22:07

• Clarín.com

• Economy

Updated 08/24/2021 7:35 AM

A few weeks before the PASO, the Government received with relief the arrival of US $ 4,334 million from the IMF for the reallocation of special drawing rights (SDR).

The funds that entered this Monday brought reserves to US $ 46.306 million, the highest level since October 2019, and gave the Central Bank a break

 at least until the end of the year.

These resources were not foreseen at the beginning of the year and neither were soybean prices.

And in both cases, they became a breath of oxygen in a challenging year in financial and foreign exchange matters.

Debt commitments total US $ 7 billion, including agencies and bondholders.

Of that total, they 

remain to pay US $ 4,575 million to the Fund

between now and December.

"The arrival of these SDRs alleviate needs to make payments with the same Fund that from now to the end of the year are for an amount quite similar to what will be received. Next

year the amounts in debt services with the IMF are quite a lot. older and it is not expected that there will be another issuance and distribution of SDR,

"explained former Finance Secretary

Daniel Marx

.

According to their calculations, maturities in 2022 amount to US $ 23.3 billion, not counting the debt of the provinces and companies.

And

about US $ 5,500 is due in the first quarter

, of which US $ 4,000 corresponds to the Fund.

Without extra resources by then, the government would be more urged to close a 10-year agreement with the agency.

"In

this way, Argentina will see itself with less margin to avoid a negotiation with the IMF

, which will mean that if an agreement is reached, Argentina will receive money in this way and it will use it for the payments it has. what to do with that body, but that is the question for 2022, "said Marx, a former debt negotiator and former head of the BCRA.

In the middle of the campaign, Alberto Fernández refloated the debate on the destination of the new funds on Monday.

"

Before paying the Fund, I have to pay a lot of social debt,

" he said at a ceremony in San Juan.

Cristina Kirchner had suggested in July that finally they would not be able to be used to deal with the pandemic, distancing herself from a sector that demanded to prioritize this spending.

From the Government, they ratified the position of the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán, who weeks ago said that the money is "fungible."

"Is the twine spent on aid or SME loans from reserves or SDRs? It is not so clear,

the important thing is that it strengthens the reserves at the beginning of the electoral process, which is always volatile and sensitive to runs,

" said one official source.

The former director of the IMF for the Western Hemisphere,

Claudio Loser

, agrees that this year there will be relief.

"Receiving US $ 4.3 billion for free changes the liquidity situation and is much better than not having it.

The situation is better for the country because using it to pay off debt is preferable to not paying the IMF,

" said the economist from Washington.

Loser warned that "if it had been negotiated earlier, it would not be necessary to pay what was owed but between 5 and 10 years."

But the government preferred to postpone the agreement until after November.

"

The agreement with the IMF has nothing to do with the elections, we speak every week with the IMF

,

" Guzmán said

in television statements on Monday.

In this context, the Minister of Economy also confirmed that

"there will be no devaluation" and no "adjustment" of spending, although he confirmed that it will continue to reduce the

fiscal

deficit

.

And he rejected the possibility of taking on debt in dollars, like Bolivia.

"How are we going to take debt at 6 or 7%? We must rebuild the capital market," said Guzmán.

Meanwhile, analysts believe that the scope for renegotiating the $ 47 billion debt is getting tighter.

"

The chances of postponing an agreement with the IMF again look limited

: the futures of agricultural commodities show a decline compared to current values, a new global injection of SDR by the IMF is not expected and

services next year of debt with the Fund and the Paris Club triple (US $ 21,200 million)

", warned

Equilibra

.

To pay the maturities, the consultant estimated that agricultural prices or the harvest would have to generate an additional increase in foreign exchange and the Executive obtain funds from China, Russia or more SDRs.

The head of the organization, Kristalina Georgieva, confirmed on Monday the promotion of

a possible Resilience Fund

to help the most vulnerable countries, but

without setting deadlines

.

Look also

In the final stretch of the campaign, Martín Guzmán goes to Congress to give details on the renegotiation of the debt

The Central Bank reinforces reserves with the arrival of the IMF SDR, but the relief will be temporary