Ana Clara Pedotti
08/29/2021 8:20 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/30/2021 7:24 AM
Did the electoral tic tac begin?
Last week, to the beat of different local and global news, Argentine assets seemed to recover from their lethargy and experienced a
mini rally
.
On the bond side,
the improvements were between 3.6% and 4.6% on average;
while the Merval accumulated a weekly jump of 8.6% measured in dollars.
Investors wonder if Argentine assets will be able to
chain another week of improvements
, with
less than fifteen days
left until
the primary elections
.
In the last STEP, and at the rate of polls that later were not reflected in the votes, stocks and bonds had also flown, and then plummeted more than 50% in a single day.
A blow from which prices have not yet managed to recover.
In addition to the political factor, and certain segments of the market that bet on a poor performance of the ruling party at the polls on September 12, there are other elements that helped the increases in recent days.
"There were several
drivers
(own and international) to analyze," explained PPI analysts.
"Beyond the volatility abroad and a
certain push from Brazil
, the focus was on politics and some rumors regarding an agreement with the IMF (nothing official is worth clarifying)," they added.
This was added to
two good news in the debt segment:
on the one hand, the announcement by the
Province of Buenos Aires,
which reported that it had obtained the necessary adhesion to close the exchange, and on the other, the
news from La Rioja
, which would have found a principle of agreement to advance in its restructuring.
The arrival of the IMF SDRs and the different rumors that the agreement with the body chaired by Kristalina Georgieva is closer to being reached could have added the weight factor that explains the improvement in Argentine assets from the local level.
As explained by consultatio analysts, beyond the result of the polls, the fundamental driver to change the perspective of investors towards the country
is to achieve the renegotiation of the mega loan of US $ 45,000 million.
"The electoral result is secondary to what arises according to the multilateral organization. If this interpretation is correct, what we are seeing today is that
the market is
trading
polls, not an electoral result,
" they remarked in a report.
From this perspective, unlike in other years, the market will not bet again on a defeat of the ruling party at the polls, but
uses the polls as a compass to anticipate what the next two years
of Alberto Fernández's government
could be like
: "Without black swans until the election, the market tone should remain positive in line with the polls. With the votes counted, and assuming a result that is not categorical for anyone, the Merval should adjust to a new level," they anticipated.
On the New York Stock Exchange there are ADRs that earn more than 90% so far this year
.
Still, Argentine assets still have plenty of room to recover their prices.
If we take as an example the share of Edenor, whose ADR jumped in dollars almost 40% last week, it should still multiply its price almost 10 times to return to the value it had at the beginning of 2018.
"We are so bad that a 40% rise in dollars in just 4 days, in perspective, is insignificant," explained financial analyst Mauro Cognetta in an email to his clients.
"Even from the current U $ D6.13, it would have to rise more than 920% (to reach the maximum price that it touched back on January 26, 2018," he said.
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