Annabella quiroga
08/30/2021 19:09
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/30/2021 19:09
Private consultants estimate that inflation will finally cross the Rubicon in August and
break the 3% monthly floor.
If this forecast comes true, it will be the first time in 12 months that the official index will be below that figure.
In July, the monthly data gave 3%, despite the fact that some private projections saw it below that level.
For the economists consulted by Clarín, inflation this month
will oscillate between 2.7% and 2.8%
.
The Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank points to a record of 2.8%.
A similar estimate is shared by the consulting firms Ecolatina and EcoGo.
For FMyA the result will be 2.7%.
For its part, the LCG survey on food and beverages, the item that has been driving inflation in recent months, showed
a monthly rise of 3.2%
.
From EcoGo they note that "in the third week of the month food prices rose 0.4% in relation to the previous week. This indicates that the weekly variation was reduced by half".
The consulting firm points out that on average, "in August food prices accumulate a variation of 2.9%. It must be considered that this data incorporates the high drag of last month, of 1.7%".
With this data and considering a projection of a weekly variation of 0.7% for the remaining week of the month, food inflation in August would reach 3.1%, below the level of July (3.8%).
With this dynamics of food,
the general index of the month for EcoGo reaches 2.8%.
For Matías Rajnerman, from Ecolatina, that for the first time in 12 months the floor of 3% is broken means that "
the anchors are beginning to be a little more effective
, but it will be necessary to see how long this is sustainable. It is good news, but it has been very expensive. "
It gives FMyA one tenth below the estimate of its colleagues.
"In a month with almost no increase in rates (except prepaid, 9% monthly between August and October),
inflation would decelerate to 2.7%
, finally tying with the Badlar rate (the one received by fixed terms greater than 1 million pesos You have to go back to July 2020 to find a non-negative monthly real rate, "they state.
From C&T Consultores they also expect inflation
"below 3% per month".
The exchange anchor
Like Ecolatina,
FMyA assigns a decisive role in the inflationary issue to the exchange rate anchor.
Since May, the dollar has been rising about 1% per month, while prices more than tripled that level.
"In August, the official dollar rose close to 1% for the fourth consecutive month, a
rate that will continue until inflation remains below 3%," they say.
In addition, the consultant Fernando Marull said that the dollar-chip (CCL) dropped 3% in August for three reasons:
"the new regulations of the Central Bank, improving the global context and the largest local optimism before the elections" .
The doubts of the consultants are oriented to September, a month in which increases in prepayments, schools, rents and expenses, among others, will be combined, which could again pressure the index above 3%.
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