Daniel Fernandez Canedo
09/04/2021 13:37
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/04/2021 2:17 PM
"Can't you make one last effort by talking to
Maximum (it is discounted that it is Kirchner) to
release some
manufactured or preserved
beef
and space for new refrigerators that do not have?
It is important in the downtown area for the elections. "
That message about the stocks for
meat
exports
, which the Secretary of Agriculture, Jorge Solmi, mistakenly spread to a group of producers, (he said it was not his) made it clear
where the real power lurks
at the time of decisions sensitive in economic matters and the North that will mark the course of the 70 days until the legislative elections.
The electoral thing dominates the space and the main economic variables are aligned in the traditional sense of Kirchnerism of trying to
recover consumption
by dint of putting money in the pockets of voters.
The announcements of higher expenses are around $ 600,000 million
and include the $ 5,000 bonus for retirees and the $ 16,000 bonus for beneficiaries of the Universal Child Allowance (AUH) and also the zero rate credits for monotax holders.
Of the spending allocated to families, about $ 340,000 million, almost half, went to transfers from the Empower Work program to associate it with the
popular economy
.
It was $ 167,000 million.
Will the
injection of pesos be
a characteristic of the period between the PASO of Sunday 12 and the legislative ones of November 14?
For now, the end of August and the beginning of September make it clear the beginning of the new stage in exchange matters.
During the week, the Central Bank ended up with a
negative balance of more than US $ 500 million
in the official dollar circuit and it is estimated that, in addition, it allocated between US $ 13 and $ 15 million per day to increase the supply in the market dollar circuit and the counted with liquidation.
The Central Bank was not taken by surprise by the change in trend.
Miguel Pesce believes that he
has sufficient net reserves
to transit until the end of the year, although the claims of the industrial branches increase (this is the case) due to having trampled on imports.
The drop of 20% in a month in the price of soybeans (it is at US $ 469) lit yellow lights on control boards of a government that, regardless of how it fares in the elections, believes that it
will be very difficult for 2022 to repeat the spectacular result
left by the exports of the field this year.
Total exports would reach US $ 72 billion this year
, about US $ 12 billion more than in 2020. And the surplus supply of dollars in 2021 would be US $ 4.5 billion when the previous year had shown a deficit of US $ 4.1 billion.
It was on this basis that Minister Martín Guzmán decided to stop indexing the official dollar and make it rise at a rate of 1% per month,
well below inflation
.
It is based on estimating that there will be less dollars from the field (preliminary calculations say that to tie it, soybeans should not fall below US $ 400 per ton or there should be drought) and with net reserves that are at US $ 5.6 billion (US $ 9,963 counting the extraordinary contribution of the International Monetary Fund) that the market tries to guess
how the peso devaluation scheme will be after the
legislative
elections
.
Both the Minister of Economy and the head of the Central Bank assure that
an exchange rate jump of magnitude cannot be expected
, suggesting that by dint of stocks and with the expectation of an agreement with the IMF the situation will be manageable.
In other words, they do not consider necessary a 21% jump like the one
Juan Carlos Fábrega
applied
in January 2014 in an
attempt to reduce the exchange rate gap to 60%
, but the gap is now 85%, even when the Economists say that the current exchange rate is not "that" behind.
Looking at the end of the year, experts place the Central's net reserves at around US $ 3,000 million, and that figure is
not enough to cover even the March debt maturity
, which is around US $ 4,000 million.
There are officials who quietly say that Alberto Fernández could say in October that there will be
an agreement to refinance the US $ 19.1 billion
that is due from the IMF loan, but no one is risking details.
Coming to the end of the year in a context of fewer dollars, and the
expectation of some acceleration in the rise in the exchange rate
, added to the fact that there will be more pesos circling the economy, perhaps officials will have to resort to the power of Máximo Kirchner to delineate a way out.
LGP
