Gustavo Bazzan
09/04/2021 17:42
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/04/2021 17:45
Deputy Luciano Laspina is one of the most prominent economic voices of the opposition in the Chamber of Deputies.
And as such, he is one of the economists who is closest to the main referents in favor of the PRO.
In turn, Congress will play an interesting role on the day that
the text of the agreement that the Government of Alberto Fernández draws up with the International Monetary Fund
arrives for approval by the Legislative Power - nobody knows when -
to define the way to reprogram the payments for almost 45,000 million dollars that Argentina maintains with that organization.
Laspina is a member of the Budget and Finance committee of the Chamber of Deputies.
In
motion
, when talking to
Clarín
, Laspina clarifies that, in his opinion, the Government
is not even close to concluding negotiations with the IMF
.
His explanation is that before the possible agreement something must be defined that is perhaps more important:
the economic course that the Frente de Todos wants to follow.
- The choice of course is not defined?
- Not at all.
I see that there are
two antagonistic positions.
On one side, Minister Martín Guzman and on the other Axel Kicillof.
A lot of water will pass under the bridge until the content of the agreement is defined.
As much as
Sergio Massa
makes it known that everything is ready, I don't think so.
I do not think they have brought the terms and conditions to Cristina Kirchner and Axel Kicillof
, who is the vice president's main economic reference.
Kicillof has a vision that is diametrically opposed to that of the world and that of Guzman himself.
- Where would you identify the differences between Guzmán and Kicillof?
- Guzman is not a virtuoso but has a
rational and pragmatic
training
.
Kicillof is not afraid of
commercial and financial
isolation
, of the fiscal deficit financed with more taxes and with more monetary issuance.
All that Kicillof proposes is
unsustainable in the medium term and the IMF knows it.
The question is to define the course or ultimately
define that struggle between Guzmán and Kicillof.
Everything indicates that today Cristina and Axel are in favor of deepening the negative of the economic policy K.
- What you define negative, how would you summarize it?
- It is a model of financial repression, of financing with issuance of the Central Bank, of frozen rates.
This led to
stagflation
, and it is obviously going to be difficult to reconcile it with the overall vision of the IMF.
If there is no internal agreement within the government, there will be no agreement with the IMF.
- Beyond those internal bids that for you divide the Government, how do you imagine an agreement with the IMF?
- I believe that the government of Alberto Fernández is fully aware that the current situation is unviable.
And if they do not change, they can hardly be electorally competitive in 2023
.
I see Guzmán with the
will to seek an agreement and give rationality
to economic policy to improve expectations.
From now on, passing the maturities until later is important, to anchor expectations and seek a reduction in country risk.
But the agreement goes far beyond that.
- What commitments does the IMF expect from Argentina, in your opinion?
- The precondition is to speak the truth.
And accept that
the public debt is the daughter of the deficit.
We must lower the deficit, there is no doubt about that.
The agreement should also include an agenda that consolidates the institutionality.
That is very important to me.
The Government should forget about the reform of the Procuratorate
, because it is an interference attempt by the Justice that ends up being a threat to companies and businessmen.
- And what else?.
- The IMF is quite pragmatic.
He is going to tell Guzman that with this
exchange gap
it cannot be continued, because it makes it impossible to grow and accumulate reserves.
He is going to ask to
make the stocks more flexible
and that implies a devaluation of the official exchange rate.
He is going to ask to
unfreeze rates and reduce subsidies
.
Let us bear in mind that in real terms, spending on subsidies is already the same as at the beginning of 2016. Raising rates is inevitable.
- Is it going to become an agreement with more shock than gradualism?
- Lifting the stocks and unfreezing rates
is more inflation and a little more recession in the short term
.
That is unavoidable.
But if there is a credible economic plan, you can get ahead.
Furthermore, there is no economy like ours that can grow without exporting more.
And for that to need to import more and open the economy.
- In the monetary area, what should be expected, in addition to the exchange rate?
- They are going to ask us for positive real interest rates, because otherwise the demand for pesos will not increase and we will have problems lowering inflation.
I repeat: you have to bank an initial shock of recession and inflation.
- Will this Government want to face these costs, thinking about the 2023 elections?
- This time Kirchnerism cannot leave the inheritance to the one who follows.
Simply because it
does not have gasoline in the tank to reach 2023
without an agreement with the IMF.
- Would you dare to say that the initial shock of recession and inflation will become something reactive in a more or less short term?
- If the government comes up with a credible plan and turns 180 degrees, I think so.
And in fact we will support it in Congress.
But if they bring us patches, everything will be more difficult.
