Ana Clara Pedotti
09/05/2021 20:33
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/06/2021 7:26 AM
Although nothing seemed to be able to arouse the interest of international investors, disenchanted with Argentina in recent years, in the previous legislative PASO slowly local assets seemed to come out of their slumber.
And although last Friday there was a slight profit-taking by investors in stocks and bonds, the
Merval managed to rise, measured in cash dollars with settlement, more than 20% in August.
Five wheels from the first electoral test for the government of Alberto Fernández, measured in dollars, the main indicator of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange is trading at
US $ 437.9,
which implies an
improvement of almost 20% since the beginning of the year
, driven by the last wheels
The country risk managed to pierce the floor of 1,500 on Friday,
closing around 1,490 units, but still exhibits the high exposure that Argentina generates for investors.
The depressed prices of Argentine stocks indicate that there is still room for improvement.
For example, although
Edenor's paper has risen
more than 122% in the last twelve months, its price is still
63.9% below the level it held before PASO 2019.
Two years ago, the polls played it a dirty trick on investors and the punishment was high.
"The vast majority of the market, especially outside of Argentina, takes a
cautious attitude
towards the elections because the blow it received in 2019 was very hard. However, investors are beginning to see the possibility that the government it is doing badly and in this context of immense global liquidity, interest in positioning itself in Argentina, "said Javier Timerman, founder of Adcap.
Investor mistrust is seen in the price of bonds,
rather than the rally in stocks.
Global bonds, which emerged a year ago after the Guzmán swap, managed to recover 8% on average in the last month, but registered an average loss of 21% this year.
Despite caution, there are investors who
dare to take the risk and put a chip in the country.
"The market is waiting for a medium or long-term plan that by leveraging an agreement with the Fund can give predictability to the economy.
The feeling on Wall Street is that the status quo is not enough,
" added Timerman.
Thus, investors' eyes are not on what may emerge from the polls this Sunday, but a little further on, on the results of the November elections.
Before and after
, the Government should begin to show signs of a new economic plan
, and the postponed agreement with the Monetary Fund could be the excuse to rearrange the variables.
"The market sees as
catalysts for the valuations both the electoral result and the agreement with the IMF.
We believe that the first could mark how likely a shift in policies that tends towards macroeconomic stabilization will be, while the second could be useful to anchor forward expectations via fiscal, monetary and exchange targets, "explained Juan Manuel Franco, an economist at Grupo SBS.
For now, the market makes its bet in a context of little certainty.
"Without an IMF driver with a certain date, all eyes are on the elections as the main cause of the recent rally," said GMA Capital's Nery Persichini.
"The possibility of an event like the one that occurred in Ecuador, where bonds had an upside of up to 49% after the unexpected presidential victory in April of Guillermo Lasso, a promarket candidate,
begins to make the hit local fixed income attractive
," he added. .
YN
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