INSEE on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for the French economy to 6.25% for this year, against 6% previously, the recovery in activity having clearly continued despite the fourth epidemic wave this summer and the establishment of the health pass.
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Gross domestic product (GDP) should thus grow by 2.7% in the third quarter and 0.5% in the fourth, after + 1.1% in the second quarter, details the National Institute of Statistics, in its last point. of conjuncture. The government is at this stage forecasting 6% growth this year after the record 8% recession last year.
"
The notable fact of this summer is that we experienced a fourth epidemic wave, and that despite this new wave, the recovery continued
", underlined Julien Pouget, head of the economic department at INSEE at a press conference.
Activity fell by a third during the first containment in spring 2020, then fell 7% below its pre-crisis level in November 2020, and 6% below in spring 2021 during the third wave.
No sanitary pass effect
After the “
peak
” of May and June, activity remained in July and August “
relatively close to its pre-crisis level
”, between -1% and -0.5% below the level of the fourth. quarter 2019, details INSEE. In particular, despite the fears of many professionals, the health pass has only "
moderately affected
" the sectors concerned (cinemas, leisure venues, discotheques, etc.), even if its introduction for catering on August 9 has had a temporary effect. an effect, says INSEE.
All in all, household consumption would have been in August at -1.5% below its pre-crisis level, would still be at -1% in September, then close this gap during the last quarter of 2021. Still, some sectors continue to suffer from the consequences of the pandemic, such as the hotel and catering industry, which has returned to an unprecedented level of activity this summer since the start of the crisis, but is still more than 10% below its pre-crisis level .
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Uncertainty on the health front in France and around the world, in particular in the United States and China, as well as supply tensions in the automotive industry, construction or capital goods, could however be short. ultimately reduce the extent of the recovery, warns INSEE. These tensions are also reflected in an increase in production prices and partially in consumer prices. But INSEE confirms its July forecast of inflation which could occasionally exceed 2%.
