Juan Manuel Barca
09/07/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/07/2021 7:12 AM
The Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, will seek to redeem himself with a good result in this Thursday's debt tender, the last test before STEP.
The objective is to
renew the commitments of the following week for $ 247,000 million in a challenging context
due to the greater dollarization pressure that makes the securities in pesos less attractive and due to the record of maturities concentrated in September.
The official expectation is placed on the TS21 bond, in the hands of Banco Nación and that would allow placing $ 157,000 million without major inconveniences.
While almost
a third of the $ 90,000 million of a letter tied to inflation (LECER) is in possession of foreign funds such as PIMCO and Templeton
, which were sought to exit last November with the auction of US dollar bonds. $ 750 million.
"The possession of bonds that to a large extent are going to be refinanced are in the hands of public investors, so it will be less challenging than what happened in August," official sources assured.
Last month, for the first time in 14 months, Guzmán could not renew all of the $ 320,000 million
in maturities despite offering shorter instruments, higher rates and early swaps, among other variants.
The official strategy for this year contemplates a deficit of 4.2%, financed 40% with debt and 60% with Central Bank issuance.
Central transfers
In the first half of the year, the Treasury covered maturities and obtained additional financing, which made it possible to reduce monetary assistance.
But
in July and August the greater financial needs and the reluctance of investors complicated placements
, increasing the Central Bank's drafts.
The Central already transferred $ 710,000 million to the Treasury in the year and has room to turn another $ 930,000 million in the remainder of 2021, according to the LCG consultancy.
The increase in pensions will put pressure on public spending.
Photo: AP / Natacha Pisarenko
"After closing August below 100% refinancing,
the Treasury once again seeks financing in the local debt market
to try to shore up the percentage of the deficit that it finances with debt and not with issuance," said Joaquín Waldman, economist at Ecolatina.
For Juan Pablo di Iorio, ACM analyst, "although the proximity to PASO adds uncertainty, since they are maturities with a strong presence of the public sector
, a renewal higher than that of August is expected
." But Guzmán's task will not be easy considering that
$ 447,000 million will expire in September
, the highest amount of the entire year.
On the other hand,
a greater expansion in spending is expected due to the adjustment of retirement mobility of 12.4% in September
, which will have an impact on a higher primary deficit that will have to be financed with more issuance in case the Economy fails to achieve place the necessary debt levels. And those pesos that the Central pour in, as Guzmán recognized, also generate "pressure" on the dollar and trigger the issuance of Leliq and then absorb them.
"In the last tenders, the private sector does not show much appetite for titles in pesos and there is a greater dollarizing pressure in the days before the elections,
without a doubt that this tender is going to be a great challenge
for the government," anticipated Lorena Giorgio, economist head of Equilibra.
And he warned that this month it will be difficult to obtain additional funds, so "the Central Bank will once again be the protagonist of the financing of the deficit."
Then, the Treasury will have to renew maturities for
$ 350,000 million
in October and the same in November
, months in which
An additional pressure will be added since in the last tenders there was a greater appetite for short discount bills (LEDES), with a deadline until October and November.
Thus, analysts believe that Finance will
have to offer a higher rate
to be able to stretch payments after the elections.
AQ
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For the first time in 14 months, Guzmán was unable to renew all debt maturities
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