Annabella quiroga
09/07/2021 13:56
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/07/2021 16:06
This Tuesday the blue dollar rises to
$ 184
.
Five days before the PASO elections, the informal economy shakes off its drowsiness and the exchange gap widens to 88%, one of the highest levels of the year.
The wholesale dollar is trading at
$ 98,
up 0.1% on the day and 0.3% on the month.
Of the different types of dollars, it was the one that moved the least: it
advanced 16.3% in the year.
The savings dollar sells for $ 170.
In contrast, the blue dollar has risen 11% so far in 2021. The biggest winners were financial dollars, which increased 23% since January.
The blue dollar had peaked at $ 195 in October of last year.
That overshooting led to the exchange gap touching 150%.
From there it fell to the beat of the greater restrictions that the Government added to the segment of financial dollars.
This year, the abundant liquidation of foreign currency from agriculture kept the foreign exchange market oiled in the first part of the year, to the point that blue became the cheapest for those looking to accumulate foreign currency.
The informal opened the year at
$ 166
and from there it moved
at a much lower rate than inflation -which accumulates 32% until August-, until reaching a maximum of
$ 185
at the end of July.
This escalation brought the exchange gap against the wholesale exchange rate to
91%
.
For August the informal settled in the range of
$ 180 / $ 182
until today.
In the middle of the afternoon he advanced two pesos and thus stretched the gap to 88%.
Anyway, it is still 14 pesos cheaper than the saving dollar.
This gap boosted the sales of the savings dollar in recent days.
This occurred because as the year progressed, the Government deepened the strategy of using the dollar as an inflationary anchor, which resulted in it moving around
1% per month
as of May, while the price index persisted around at
3% per month.
In this round the Central sold US $ 90 million.
So far in September, the Central Bank has already allocated
US $ 310 million
to supply the greater market demand due to the proximity of the elections.
It also maintains its intervention on the segment of financial dollars to prevent these prices from escalating.
On the day, the volume traded in the cash segment reached
US $ 428 million
, while in the future dollar market,
US $ 54 million were
traded
through the Electronic Open Market (MAE) and
US $ 585 million
in the Rofex. as detailed by the operator Gustavo Quintana.
Volume traded in the spot segment US $ 428,659 million, in MAE futures US $ 54 million were made and in Rofex US $ 585 million
- Gustavo P Quintana (@guspaqui) September 7, 2021
Cash with liquid rose 1.1% this afternoon, to
$ 172.8
, while the MEP reached
$ 172.4
after an advance of 0.9%.
Low country risk
The JP Morgan indicator that measures the over-cost of Argentine debt stands at
1,484 points
, 0.2% below last Friday's closing.
The country risk reflects the rebound in dollar bonds in the midst of the rally that Argentine papers have been showing due to the optimism of the market for the result of the elections.
"Bonds are 15% -17% up, compared to the lows recorded in March. But if you watch the full movie, since the debt restructuring - just over a year ago - they are still 25% down," said Pedro Siaba Serrate, an analyst at Portfolio Personal Inversiones.
"In other words, distrust of the country's direction continues and this makes it difficult for Argentina to return to the market. However, if the scenario that investors are looking for were really given,
the bonds would have an interesting rise potential
, especially in the short part of the curve, which today has negative slopes, "he said.
AQ
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