Annabella quiroga
09/09/2021 13:10
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/09/2021 13:10
The upward trend of the blue dollar continues.
At the opening of this wheel, one peso advances and reaches
$ 188
, the highest value so far in 2021. In two days the blue dollar increased six pesos, after having spent five weeks moving around the
$ 182
.
With this price, the exchange gap in relation to the official exchange rate
stretches to 91%
.
The wholesale dollar started the day at
$ 98.06
, five cents above Wednesday's close.
The savings dollar sells for
$ 170.
The calm brought by the blue dollar was broken this week when pre-election dollarization was fully felt.
On the one hand, with the rise of the blue, which despite this jump
advanced only 14% so far this year
, less than the official one, which increased 16.5% in the same period.
The other indicator of dollarization pressure comes from the Central Bank, which so far in September has sold close to
US $ 420 million
to meet the demand of investors and importers seeking to hedge against a potential jump in the dollar -or before a greater closure of imports - after the elections.
In the last two wheels, the Central sold
US $ 90 million
in each one.
It has been more than 15 days that the monetary authority has not been able to buy currencies on the market.
This coincides with a decline in sales by the field, with most of the crop already sold.
The Central has
net reserves of around US $ 6,000 million
- discounting the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) contributed by the IMF and which will be used mainly to pay debts with the same organization - and with these resources it must cover the demand for foreign currency. in the latter part of the year, which will be boosted by imports.
Wholesale dollar starts the day at levels of $ 98.06 per unit, five cents above yesterday's close
- Gustavo P Quintana (@guspaqui) September 9, 2021
The demand of importers
Purchases abroad have been growing at a high rate.
The latest official data, corresponding to July, marks
US $ 5,715 million
, an increase of 65.9% compared to the same month last year.
In this context, importers rush to advance purchases with a
double fear
.
On the one hand, they are concerned that after the elections the government will let the dollar run at a slightly higher rate.
And on the other hand, they fear that the turnstile on imports will be adjusted, with more restrictions and fewer permits to carry out these operations.
The increase in imports is correlated with the growth in activity, which is heading to close the year with a 7% rise after the collapse of 10% last year in the midst of the pandemic.
The statistics show that for each point that the gross product grows, purchases abroad expand by 3 points, which shows
a high elasticity.
From the consulting firm LCG they state that in imports "the dynamics will be determined by the recovery of the activity, which we presume will not be vigorous in the remainder of the year, and by the
availability of dollars
to meet the payments."
The consulting firm points out that the upward exchange gap that "
motivates the advancement of purchases
" and warns that "greater restrictions of the Central Bank to have foreign currency may become effective" in the coming weeks.
AQ
Look also
Kristalina Georgieva gave hints on what future loans from the International Monetary Fund should look like
2022 salary increases: what are the increases that companies estimate to give
