Soledad Navarro
Annabella quiroga
09/08/2021 19:11
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/08/2021 19:18
In the face of the elections, the first term that will take place this Sunday and the second round for which we will have to wait until November, the Government
accelerated measures that aim to reactivate consumption
in a stage that also seeks to leave behind the effects of the pandemic.
According to the latest data from the Broda Study, the expansion of extra spending planned for the year is
around $ 600,000 million, an amount equivalent to 1.4% of GDP.
Of that number, which coincides with the data reported by the Government, as of June 2021, more than $ 130,000 million had already been used, according to official data from the Ministry of the Economy.
In this direction, in the last year, the Government has been
deepening, rearming and elaborating
a series of stimulus measures with the aim of
putting more money in the weak Argentine pockets
.
Within this electoral menu are the update of the Income tax - those who earn less than $ 150,000 stopped paying it -, the reopening of the parities above 40%, the last bonus of $ 5,000 to retirees (who received with the assets of August) and the new version of Now 12, which led to 24 and 30 installments.
Scholarships, credits and bonds put at the service of consumption.
The Government took measures with which it seeks to encourage consumption.
This list includes the expansion of the Alimentar Card and the Progresar Scholarships, the new version of REPRO and the loans to monotributistas, among other announcements.
The Broda Study revealed
32 measures
, including investment to address the pandemic.
According to what is detailed in a work, the funds to strengthen the health system reach $ 144,000 million and another $ 72,000 million will be the investment in vaccines
.
Broda's calculations show that the pre-election package will total
$ 584.4 billion
, an amount equivalent to 1.4% of the gross product.
Of this total, more than half -
$ 341,000 million
- are measures that go directly to the families' pockets. In this way Kirchnerism rewrites the recipe it had used in 2015. According to Vice President Cristina Kirchner in her book Sincerely, to shore up the campaign of the then official candidate Daniel Scioli
allocated 1% of GDP.
Now - and with the experience still fresh from the lost presidential election in 2015 - they raise the stakes a few points higher and stretch the package to 1.4%.
To cover this extension of spending, the Government makes use of some
exceptional resources.
On the one hand, the high liquidation of the field, which so far this year reached
US $ 23,230 million,
a historical record for the period, as a consequence of the exceptional prices for grains.
To this are added the $ 200,000 million that entered the treasury from the Wealth Tax and the additional of the
US $ 3,443 million
that the IMF contributed in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and that will alleviate the amounts allocated to the payment of the debt at the end of this year.
Vaccination plan.
(Xinhua / Ahmed Gomaa)
When measuring the impact of this spending on public accounts, the consulting firm Equilibra points out that they expect a primary deficit of 2.6 points of GDP between August and December, of which
"0.7 points
will come from measures to expand social programs , bonuses for retirees and reinforcements of allocations within the framework of the “electoral push” to boost consumption ".
In addition, they foresee that there will be an additional push in expenditures on the side of capital spending and credit programs at subsidized rates, adding another 0.3 points of GDP.
In the annual projection this would bring the red to 3.3% of GDP, according to this calculation.
From the consulting firm LCG they project a primary deficit below 4% of GDP in 2021. "Given that the Government has already consumed a good part of the Central Bank's assistance margin (it only has $ 800 million in the remainder of the year in respect of Transitory Advances and quasi-fiscal transfers), it will be necessary to
cover the gap with net financing
, "says the consultant.
This puts pressure on the placements that Minister Martín Guzmán has been making in the market -this Thursday he will go out to look for a minimum of
$ 90,000 million
to face the maturities of next week-.
According to LCG, to cover the higher expenses, you will have to roll
$ 1.1 of each $ 1
of interest capital maturity.
LCG warns that the main challenge will come in 2022, "when the absence of extraordinary income from the solidarity contribution, the SDR provided by the IMF, and the improvement in international prices require
a more pronounced cut in spending
to achieve a gradual fiscal convergence. ".
SN AQ
Look also
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In July, construction continued its recovery: it grew 2.1%
