Annabella quiroga
09/14/2021 12:19
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/14/2021 12:19 PM
After the euphoria in the market for the results of the elections, the blue dollar
it recovers and this Tuesday
a peso advances to $ 182.
With this, the exchange rate gap stretches to 85%.
On Monday
he dropped four pesos and went from $ 185 to $ 181.
In this way he returned to the average level that he had shown during August, before the pre-election dollarization pushed him to touch $ 188.
On Monday the Merval had jumped up to 10% and then settled at 5.5%.
A similar impact was registered in Argentine stocks that are listed abroad, with increases of up to 18% for energy companies.
This Tuesday, the Merval yields 0.8% and the ADRs in New York are trading mixed.
For analysts,
this drop in the blue is temporary
and after the euphoria could resume its upward trend.
The ceiling of the blue will depend in the coming weeks on the measures taken by the Government and on the interpretation that the market makes of these announcements.
The backdrop to the foreign exchange market continues to be
the shortage of foreign exchange
, in a context in which the Central Bank has only
US $ 6 billion
of net reserves to intervene in the market and control the exchange rate. In the week prior to the elections, he
lost
more than
US $ 500 million
in this task, so analysts point out that the pace is not sustainable since the monetary authority would end up losing its net reserves before the end of the year. Yesterday the Central took advantage of the calm in the market and managed to buy US $ 15 million.
This Tuesday, amid speculation about whether the Government will promote changes in the cabinet or in the economic direction, the wholesale dollar advances four cents over the previous close and is trading at
$ 98.24.
The savings dollar remains at
$ 170.
For their part,
financial dollars are rising again after yesterday's calm
.
The cash with liquid, the operation to withdraw foreign currency from the country, increased 1.3%, to
$ 173
, while the MEP dollar, which is traded on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, advanced 0.7%, to
$ 172.1.
A matter of trust
"In the financial dollars there will not be much movement, they can go down a little for a matter of confidence, but that
is not sustainable,
" said economist Fausto Spotorno, from the Ferreres y Asociados Study.
For Spotorno, "while the exchange rate is in place, a few dollars will come in for exports and a lot of dollars will come out for imports."
And he pointed out that if the Government issues more pesos to put money in its pockets to boost the recovery of consumption and improve its vote flow in November, "more will have to be imported to sustain this increased activity. The problem is that the Central Bank does not have dollars. to bank a higher demand for foreign exchange,
at least not at this price
. "
For Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI), after the electoral defeat "the ruling party will try to reverse the result. It is possible that we will see
a deterioration greater than expected in the fiscal area
and a higher level of monetary assistance."
What follows this tactic is "
greater pressure on the exchange rate gap
and on prices. In this way, we can see some calm in liquid cash, although the outlook is not very encouraging going forward."
In this context, "a situation of reducing country risk may be generated, a rise in bonds and stocks, and in turn, a rise in the exchange rate," said PPI.
"The other question that this scenario raises for us is about the agreement with the IMF.
A more aggressive economic policy stance raises doubts about the possibilities of closing the agreement in the short term.
The IMF hardly wants to rush amid a potential deterioration of economic conditions and without having the endorsement for possible conditions ", they remarked.
AQ
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