Annabella quiroga
09/15/2021 12:49 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/15/2021 1:51 PM
The blue dollar recovers the ground that it had given up after the defeat of the Government in the PASO and this Wednesday it rises one peso at the opening.
With this increase, it already reaches
$ 185
, the same level that it showed the Friday before the elections.
The morning after the elections, the informal dollar fell four pesos and stood at $ 181. But from that floor it was advancing.
In August the blue had remained calm, oscillating between $ 180 and $ 182, with the demand contained because the saving dollar, today at $ 170, had a more convenient price than that of the blue.
The informal woke up the week before STEP and reached $ 188, although on Friday, September 9, it closed at $ 185.
The pre-electoral dollarization made itself felt and it
is expected to continue on its way to November 14
, amid market expectations about which path the Government will choose to try to rebuild its electoral flow.
In this context "
the market is expectant
: the list of investors willing to sell still has positions to download, while international demand remains skeptical," they indicate from the Cohen group.
"
A little taste among investors after the overwhelming result on Sunday"
, point out from Portfolio Personal Inversores (PPI).
"Beyond the optimistic horizon awakened by the result of the PASO, the market is concerned about what may happen in these months. If the Government adopts an aggressive economic policy, which implies a deterioration of the fiscal result financed with monetary issuance, the repercussions on the macro they will not be long in coming. As a consequence of this scenario, there are also doubts about the agreement with the IMF ".
More country risk
Country risk, the JP Morgan indicator that accounts for the over-cost that Argentina faces when it comes to borrowing, jumped again.
Wednesday up 0.7%, to
1506 basis points
.
The indicator had already been on the rise since Tuesday, when Argentine bonds lost between 1.1 and 1.9%.
In this round, the AL30 in dollars, one of the most traded bonds,
falls 1%.
The eyes of investors are on the next steps that the Government will take on a key day because today the 2022 Budget is presented. This step should shed light on two central issues: on the one hand, what are the Executive's guidelines for the next period, and on the other, what room for maneuver is left to Minister Martín Guzmán, the most questioned by the hard wing of Kirchnerism.
Yesterday, the rise in country risk coincided with the appearance of different voices of Kirchnerism demanding that Alberto Fernández
reinstate the Emergency Family Income (IFE)
and implement measures to increase the pocket income of the most backward sectors of society.
While for Kirchnerism putting money in people's pockets translates as a chance to turn the electoral result around, for investors this idea means
accelerating even more the rate of monetary issuance
and thus increasing the pressure on prices and at the same time increase the public deficit, which works against the possibilities of advancing in the short term towards an agreement with the Monetary Fund.
AQ
Look also
In August, the state deficit fell due to the sharp increase in tax revenue
Elections: which economic measures Alberto Fernández evaluates and which ones Mauricio Macri took between the PASO and the general elections
