The Government expects to present the Budget in Congress today

Juan Manuel Barca

09/14/2021 8:36 PM

• Clarín.com

• Economy

Updated 09/15/2021 7:46 AM

In the midst of the attacks against the cabinet due to the electoral debacle on Sunday and the internal pressure to launch immediate measures,

the Government is preparing to fight the next battle in Congress with the delivery scheduled for this Wednesday of the Budget 2022

.

That is the expectation of sources from the Ministry of Economy, Head of Cabinet and Presidency.

"

Between now and tomorrow we should receive it from the Economy and once that happens, the Cabinet Office sends it to Congress,

" they said at the Government House.

In this way, they tried to silence the versions that circulated in the last hours about a possible postponement of their presentation in Parliament, whose deadline set by law expires this Wednesday. 

The head of the Treasury, Martín Guzmán, was this Tuesday finalizing details of the project that he would present in the next few hours.

According to preliminary versions, it contemplates a

growth of between 3 and 4%, an inflation close to 35% and a primary deficit of between 3 and 3.5% of GDP

.

The goals reflect the course for next year and are part of the negotiation with the IMF.

The level of activity supposes a deceleration with respect to the expansion -statistical drag- of between 7 and 8% expected for this year, after a fall of 9.9% in 2020. Even so, the official calculation is optimistic, since the IMF and ECLAC project a GDP increase of 2.7 and 2.4%, respectively.

The lower momentum of the economy in 2022 is due to the fact that

there will no longer be a statistical drag or rebound

.

In the case of inflation, economists also believe that the official bar is ambitious

.

Although the CPI reached 2.5% per month in August, it accumulated 32% in the first eight months of the year.

If these levels are sustained, the price index could close at 46%.

And next year, the market expects at least 42%, several points above the 2022 Budget.

The underestimation of the evolution of prices in the current budget led to the liquefaction of spending in 2021, as the latter increased below inflation.

"

If you go with 35% inflation and end up higher, in those items that you do not make budgetary modifications you will liquefy spending

, in real terms it will fall," said

Claudio Caprarulo

, director of 

Analytica

.

Guzmán's other challenge will be to bring the primary deficit almost 1 point below the 4.2% forecast for this year

.

In the first seven months, the accumulated red was 0.7% thanks to the extraordinary income from the price of soybeans and the extraordinary contribution, as well as the elimination of pandemic spending and the adjustment of spending less to inflation.

The emergency plan to rebuild income, which would be announced on Thursday, will add more pressure on the accounts

made by the minister, unless there is a reallocation of items as happened last year when the ruling bloc returned the budget with new expenses. and cuts in items, respecting the deficit defined in Economy.

The IMF warned weeks ago that Argentina must achieve a fiscal surplus.

Guzmán's intention is to get closer, but economists believe he falls short.

"Next

year is going to be complicated, with lower income and financing, the deficit should be 2.8%, so they have to adjust spending to finance it,

" said

Sebastián Menescaldi

, deputy director of

EcoGo

.

In the opposition, on the other hand, they await details on the negotiation of the debt.

"On September 15 the draft budget is expected for 2022. do you explain there are the definitions of the new program of economic policy?

Are the contents of reforms that will

hold the future agreement with the IMF anticipate?"

Wondered the Alem Foundation in a document.

"We must not lose sight of the fact that, in 2020, the Executive Power governed, prior to the pandemic, without a budget approved by Congress and under the umbrella of the economic emergency law, which established more emergencies than during the 2001 crisis. "said the foundation linked to radicalism.

There, they suspect that the economic definitions will be postponed until after the November elections.

Look also

Guzmán voted in La Plata, while preparing the final details of the 2022 Budget

Martín Guzmán leans on Alberto Fernández to resist the crossfire

Martín Guzmán on Leliq's ball: "It's dysfunctional"