Ana Clara Pedotti
09/16/2021 12:39 PM
Updated 09/16/2021 12:39 PM
At the end of Wednesday and
in the midst of a strong uncertainty
product of the political crisis that generated the presentation of massive resignations of Cabinet officials close to Cristina Kirchner, the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán complied with what was agreed and presented the project of the Budget 2022 in Congress.
The estimates for the
exchange rate, inflation, growth, salary and the fiscal deficit
are the keys to the document, which entered the venue minutes before midnight, and allows us to anticipate how Guzmán and his team expect the direction of the economy over the next year.
As the Minister of Economy had announced weeks ago,
the country would grow 8% this year
, after having fallen almost 10% during the pandemic in 2020. But, by 2022,
the rebound would slow down to a 4% increase. of GDP in 2022,
according to official calculations.
All in all, this number is more optimistic than the one raised by the market consensus in the latest Expectations Survey, compiled by the Central Bank,
which estimated a 2.4% increase in GDP.
Even from international organizations like the IMF, which expects the country to bounce just 2.4% next year;
or from ECLAC, which anticipated an expansion of the economy of 2.7% of GDP by 2022.
"There is no macroeconomic stabilization that is possible without a recovery in economic activity, and it is on this premise that a new Budget law is designed that establishes
that the State continues to play a central role in order to sustain and prop up the
and that reaches all sectors ", explains the document of the Law of Laws.
"It is necessary to continue reassuring the economy so that there are more and more certainties, more optimism and more opportunities in households and in productive organizations throughout Argentina," he says.
Guzmán's calculations foresee a
28% increase in the nominal exchange rate for next year.
the official dollar would go from $ 102.4,
which is what the Government expects it to trade at the end of the year, to $ 131.1 in December next year.
At this point,
the devaluation of the official exchange rate that the Government is encouraged to anticipate is less than that predicted by economists:
according to the latest REM, analysts projected a dollar of $ 105.75 at the end of the year and that the rate of change reaches $ 154.5 in December 2022.
Guzmán himself had to admit that he was
optimistic a year ago, when he set a guideline of 29% for the increase in prices in 2021.
In recent weeks, his portfolio spoke of a 33% increase in prices for the twelve months of this year.
Now, the bill revised that number
and took it to 45.1% by December and anticipated a jump in the CPI of 33% by the end of next year.
Once again, the numbers are more optimistic than what the consulting firms expect: in the last REM the projection was 48% annual inflation in December, which could only go back to 44% year-on-year by the end of 2022.
The Government points to
a recovery in real wages, above the inflation of 3.8% for this year, and 4% for the next.
Thus, salaries would increase on average 50.6% in 2021 and the guideline for the joint 2022 would be in the order of 38.3%.
Official estimates foresee a
primary fiscal deficit for this year lower than the one that had been projected twelve months ago and placed it at 3.3%
by the end of 2021.
Despite the claim within the governing coalition to increase social spending after the PASO,
in the portfolio headed by Guzmán they deny that corrections have been made after Sunday's result
1.22% of GDP
for spending of social inclusion;
while for this year 1.7% of the Product was estimated for this reason.
Meanwhile, the financial deficit, which includes debt payments, was estimated at 5.4% and 4.9% of GDP, respectively.
The government hopes to finance this 4.9% of GDP in three ways: 2% through debt issuance, 1.8% through contributions from the BCRA, which would represent more than $ 1 trillion, and another 1.1% financed by international organizations.
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