Annabella quiroga
09/15/2021 1:47 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/15/2021 1:47 PM
Since the result of the PASO was known, the Kirchner wing of the Government has been pressing for
measures that increase the pocket salary
of the most affected sectors of society.
Along these lines, La Cámpora is promoting the return of the IFE, the program that at the start of the pandemic granted three bonds of $ 10,000 each to almost 9 million people.
The government says that the return of the IFE is not yet on the table.
The versions that transpired speak of
a more limited program
, which would reduce the number of beneficiaries to a third and for an amount greater than the original $ 10,000.
The first IFE began to be paid in April of last year.
Since then,
inflation has accumulated a rise of 62.1%
.
If the IFE were adjusted by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it should go to
$ 16,200
.
The economist Bruno Panighel points out that the purchasing power of those 10,000 pesos
was reduced 39% compared to April last year
.
"Today an IFE of $ 10,000 is equivalent to less than half an IFE than when the quarantine started measured in blue dollars,
35% less measured in official dollars
," calculated Panighel.
The original IFE sued the State for
$ 270,000 million in 2020
.
That expense was covered with monetary issuance, the same resource that would be used if the K wing plan to "put money in people's pockets" is advanced.
"I think
the government is going to play hard with social spending for November,
but it will be a bigger fiscal deficit. The income for these expenses is not there today," said Panighel.
"It is possible that the market decides to lend to the Treasury, but to a certain extent. The risk increases with each increase in the debt (which today is again in the historical maximum stock measured in dollars). What remains?
Finance the largest deficit with monetary issuance
, which will lead to a short-term boom for December, but which will put pressure on prices, the dollar and rates, "said the economist.
From this point of view, "the Government is having another
dynamic inconsistency
: it aims for a good result in the short term to turn the election around, but it gets into a medium-term mess because this will lead to higher inflation, which will generate pressures for further devaluation and for a higher rate hike, or a larger fiscal deficit via economic subsidies. "
The original plan
The Emergency Family Income (IFE) was a measure designed to face the effect of quarantine and confinement.
It was going to be for the only time, but as the quarantine was extended it was extended until it covered three payments, of $ 10,000 each.
The original version included
9 million people
.
There were the holders of the Universal Allowance for HiJo (AUH), informal workers, the unemployed, domestic workers and monotributistas of categories A and B.
Now, what transpired is that this universe would be limited to
two or three million people
.
Last year the IFE was financed with monetary issuance, at a time when, due to confinement and lack of activity, inflation fell.
Months later, with the economy recovering its rhythm, inflation began to rise at the same time that the weight of that issue began to be felt in prices.
The fear that the monetary issue will accelerate again cut the bullish rally brought by Argentine bonds and stocks and pushed the country risk to cross the 1,500 basis point line once again.
AQ
Look also
Elections: which economic measures Alberto Fernández evaluates and which ones Mauricio Macri took between the PASO and the general elections
Will the "slap plan" of stepping on the dollar and issuing many more pesos work?
