Juan Manuel Barca
09/16/2021 8:33 PM
Updated 9/17/2021 7:37 AM
Contained dollar, rate increase and
fiscal and monetary squeeze
Those are some of the main guidelines that emerge from the Budget sent to Congress on Wednesday night.
With this roadmap, Martín Guzmán ratified his intention to
reach an agreement with the IMF
and refinance maturities for US $ 19,000 million in 2022.
The Economy Minister closed the 4,851-page project shortly before dawn, amid the resignations presented by Kirchnerist ministers and strong pressure to leave his post or correct economic policy after the defeat in the PASO.
This Thursday, Cristina again insisted that they resign and pointed against the "fiscal adjustment."
True to the premise of
staying the course
, Guzmán's project foresees a
28.7% rise in the dollar for next year
Thus, the exchange rate will go from $ 102.4 at the end of December to $ 131.1 at the end of the following year.
This implies a variation in the exchange rate lower than the 33% inflation forecast by the Economy, but also the 43% average estimated by the market.
"Inflation above the exchange rate is difficult to sustain for another year.
The exchange rate cannot continue to appreciate in the short term and an increase in rates is also expected, according to the budget, that adds more pressure to inflation
, whose projection is low, "estimated
, economist at
Economists believe that after the November elections, the Central Bank will be forced to accelerate the rate of devaluation in the face of
less room to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
The last month it was discharged of US $ 950 million
And then there will be fewer dollars
: the trade balance will be US $ 9,323 million in 2022, 27% less than this year.
One of the sensitive points is the reduction of
subsidies to utility rates
. After the fight between Guzmán and Kirchnerism, which resulted in a partial increase of 6% in gas and 9% in electricity, those funds in 2022 will
represent 1.8% of GDP in 2022, a figure that is expected to be cut at 1.5% with tariff segmentation
. This year they would close at 2.5%.
In the context of the pandemic, the Government subsidized companies to meet the costs of electricity generation and gas supply.
But now it seeks to reduce subsidies and that consumers pay a price closer to the cost of energy.
The item of subsidies for electricity consumption was included in Revenue Policy, a total item of $ 2 trillion
(3.4% of GDP).
It is also reflected in the transfers to the Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico (CAMMESA) to cover costs that are not taken care of by users.
By 2022, it is expected that 43% of the wholesale costs of the electricity system will be covered by the electricity tariff paid by the user,
" the project says.
Today, that percentage is 30%.
That will be one of the items that will contribute to cutting spending.
Guzmán estimates that this year the primary deficit will be 4% and the financial deficit 5.4%.
"This manifests the
prudent administration of public finances, preserving the criterion of setting the inter-annual variation rate of expenses below that estimated for resources,
" says the Budget.
the primary imbalance will be 3.3% and the financial one 4.9% due to an increase in collection
due to the recovery and expansion of spending of 34.9%.
Public sector salaries will grow 40.2% and social security benefits, 39.2%.
In terms of GDP, on the other hand, these two items will not have increases (0%) compared to 2021
The Government is betting on financing the deficit next year with the issuance of the Central Bank (1.8%), taking on debt in pesos (2%) and refinancing from international organizations (1.1%).
The monetary guideline represents a challenge, since it is half of what was forecast for this year
And in recent months, the BCRA accelerated the transfer of funds to the Treasury.
Finally, it is expected not to pay capital maturities to the Fund in 2022, assuming an agreement with the agency.
At the end of a hectic day, Guzmán sent the Budget 2022: dollar at $ 131.10 and inflation of 33%
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