Production at VW: the shortage of semiconductors is not only a problem for the automotive industry
Matthias Rietschel / dpa
Germany's economy is likely to emerge from the corona crisis more slowly than expected: According to the Ifo Institute, economic output should only increase by 2.5 percent this year - 0.8 percentage points less than previously predicted.
"The strong recovery after Corona, which was originally expected for the summer, is further postponed," said Ifo economic chief Timo Wollmershäuser.
Last year, Germany's economic output slumped by 4.9 percent compared to the previous year.
The coming federal government can then expect a strong upturn.
The Ifo researchers increased their growth forecast for 2022 by 0.8 points to 5.1 percent.
Braking delivery problems
However, companies are still facing a few problems.
"Production in industry is currently shrinking as a result of supply bottlenecks for important preliminary products," said Wollmershäuser.
The global demand for durable consumer goods and electronic items has brought many manufacturers to their capacity limits.
In addition, changes in the flow of goods presented the global supply chains with enormous challenges.
Recovery in the service sector
On the other hand, the service providers recovered.
The increase in employment there accelerated strongly in the second quarter.
"The economy is divided," said Wollmershäuser.
The number of unemployed is expected to fall to 2.6 million this year and 2.4 million in 2022.
"Short-time working was also noticeably reduced and will reach its pre-crisis level in the coming year," the economic researchers predicted.
The inflation rate is likely to rise to 3.0 percent this year, for the coming year the institute expects an inflation rate of 2.3 percent.
The national deficit - i.e. the new debt of the federal government, states, municipalities and social security funds - is likely to reach 157 billion euros this year and 52 billion in the next.
For 2023, the economic researchers expect a balanced state budget.
Other research institutes had recently also lowered their forecasts.
The RWI in Essen expects 3.5 percent economic growth this year, the IWH in Halle 2.2 percent and the DIW in Berlin 2.1 percent.
The leading research institutes want to present a joint autumn forecast in mid-October.
Banks rely on the desire to consume after Corona
The Federal Association of German Banks (BdB) also expects slightly less growth for the current year than originally hoped.
The chief economists of the German private banks calculate with an economic plus of 3.3 percent - this corresponds to the level before the corona crisis.
"But the truth is also that the risks to economic development have recently increased," said Deutsche Bank's chief economist in Germany, Stefan Schneider, of the editorial network in Germany.
According to the bank economists, the greatest uncertainty factors are the increased number of corona infections as well as delivery and production bottlenecks that affect industry in particular.
World trade and, above all, private consumption remain the strongest pillars of growth.
»We expect private consumption to increase by seven percent in 2022.
That would be by far the strongest increase since reunification, «explained BdB managing director Christian Ossig.
"The forced saving through Corona seems to be over, the catch-up effects will continue into the next year."
mic / dpa-afx