The number of business failures, after having decreased thanks to the support of States in the face of the health crisis, should rebound next year, both in France and elsewhere in the world, according to a study published on Wednesday by the insurer. credit Euler Hermes.
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Globally, these defaults declined in 2020 and are expected to decline by another 6% this year, before rising again by 15% in 2022, according to the study.
In France, where companies have benefited from massive aid against the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, the decline was 38% in 2020 and should still be 17% this year, before a strong rebound of 40% next year, says Euler Hermes.
Withdrawal of support measures
In 2020, the number of failures in France stood at just over 32,000, against more than 50,000 per year before the health crisis. According to the credit insurer, it should rise to around 37,000 next year. "
The withdrawal of public support measures should trigger a gradual normalization of business failures
," anticipates Euler Hermes. Globally, despite the anticipated increase in bankruptcies, they should however remain 4% less numerous next year than in 2019. The pace of the return to normal will be different depending on the country.
In Europe, Spain and Italy, whose economies are particularly exposed to the health crisis because of the weight of tourism, will experience "
a strong rebound in insolvencies in 2022
", while Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands “
will take longer to return to default levels similar to those in 2019
” thanks to strong public support which has for some been extended over time.
Few expected failures in the United States
In the United States, the level of insolvencies will remain low in 2021 and 2022, "
mainly thanks to the massive public support deployed and to a particularly strong economic rebound, the fastest ever recorded in the last three decades
".
Finally, Euler Hermes reports that, "
in emerging markets, the normalization of levels of corporate failures has already started, in part due to less generous state support and, recently, the strengthening of health restrictions
."
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In Asia, the credit insurer sees an 18% increase in defaults next year, which should however also remain below 2019, "
unless the pandemic continues to disrupt port activities, factories and chains supply in the region
”.
