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Less but growing: Disappointment with third-quarter GDP data
After only yesterday in the Ministry of Finance we updated the annual growth forecast to 7.1%, the data for the third quarter come from the Central Bureau of Statistics, which indicates a growth of only 2.4% compared to the second quarter - and cools the enthusiasm.
In other words: the Israeli economy is still growing, but less than the Treasury's forecast
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CBS
GDP
Domestic product
growth
Sonia Gorodisky
Tuesday, 16 November 2021, 12:19 Updated: 12:52
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According to CBS, Israel's economy grew in the third quarter by 2.4% compared to the second quarter. This is a relatively tepid figure finance expectations. Recall that yesterday revised its chief economist at the Finance Ministry poetry Greenberg its growth forecast for 2021 stands at 7.1%.
Apparently figure lukewarm published just will treasure lower back its growth forecast, because in order to reach growth of over 7% this year, growth in the last quarter to stand at more than 5-6% from the previous quarter (rough guess).
Here are the figures published by the Central Bureau of Statistics:
quarter Third of 2021 compared to the second quarter of 2021
(seasonally adjusted change in annual calculation at market prices)
• 2.4% increase in GDP
• 3.5% increase in GDP without net taxes on imports
• Stability in business GDP (0.1 increase) %)
• Increase of 0.7% in private consumption expenditure (increase of 5.1% in private consumption excluding
durable goods)
• 14.8% increase in fixed asset investments
• 7.5% increase in exports of goods and services
• 2.7% increase in imports of goods and services
• 2.3% decrease in public consumption expenditure The
increase in GDP in the third quarter reflects increases in fixed asset investments and exports of goods and services. From the decline in passenger car imports after the increase in the previous quarter) maintained stability and public consumption decreased.
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GDP in the last three years (Photo: CBS)
The third quarter of 2021 compared to the third quarter of 2020
(seasonally adjusted change in market prices)
• 5.9% increase in GDP
• 5.5% increase in GDP excluding net taxes on imports
• 6.4% increase in business GDP
• Increase Of 12.7% in private consumption expenditure (12.9% increase in private consumption excluding
durable goods)
• 14.2% increase in investments in fixed assets
• 10.7% increase in exports of goods and services
• 25.4% increase in imports of goods and services
• 1.0% decrease in consumption expenditure Public
Third quarter of the year, multi-year comparison (Photo: CBS)
Private consumption expenditure
Private consumption expenditure affected by the sharp decline in passenger car imports compared with the previous quarter increased by 0.7% on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2021, while private consumption expenditure excluding durable goods that does not include the purchase of passenger cars increased by 5.1% on an annual basis.
Private consumption per capita decreased by 1.1% on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the second quarter of 2021 after an increase of 31.3% on an annualized basis in the second quarter (7.0% on a quarterly basis).
The changes in private consumption expenditure per capita in the third quarter of 2021 reflect a 6.8% increase in current private consumption per capita (expenditure on food, beverages and tobacco, personal services, housing, fuel and electricity for home maintenance, and industrial products for current consumption).
Expenditure on semi-durable goods per capita (expenditure on clothing and footwear, home textiles, small appliances and household appliances, entertainment and leisure products and personal belongings) increased in the third quarter of 2021 by 2.9% on an annualized basis.
When expenditure on clothing and footwear decreased by 9.2% on an annualized basis.
Expenditure on durable goods per capita fell by 18.5% on an annualized basis, with expenditure on vehicles for private use declining significantly after the sharp rise in the second quarter.
The global shortage in the automotive industry has led to a decline in the purchase of new vehicles, which has reduced private consumption expenditure (Photo: ShutterStock)
Public consumption expenditure
Public consumption expenditure decreased by 2.3% in the third quarter of 2021 on an annualized basis.
Expenditure on civilian consumption rose by 0.9% on an annualized basis, while net civilian purchases fell by 1.9% on an annualized basis.
Defense consumption expenditure increased by 14.4% on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2021, with defense imports contributing significantly to this increase.
Investment in residential construction, on an annual basis, increased by 13.5% (Photo: Reuven Castro)
Investment in fixed assets
Investment in fixed assets (investment in dwellings and investment by the economy in construction, equipment and vehicles) increased in the third quarter of 2021 by 14.8% on an annualized basis.
The change in investment in fixed assets reflects a decrease of 68.1% in annual calculation in investment in land transportation (24.8% in quarterly calculation) after the sharp increase in the previous quarter.
Investment in machinery and other equipment (excluding ICT equipment - equipment in the information and communication technology industries) decreased by 16.4% on an annualized basis, and investments in the ICT industries increased by 20.7% on an annualized basis (4.8% on a quarterly basis).
Investment in intellectual property products has remained stable (an increase of 0.2% on an annualized basis).
Investment in residential construction increased by 13.5% on an annualized basis and investment in non-residential construction and other construction works increased by 6.4% on an annualized basis.
Exports of start-up companies swept exports of goods and services up 7.5% (Photo: ShutterStock)
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services (excluding diamonds and start-ups) remained stable in the third quarter of 2021 (an increase of 0.6% on an annualized basis).
Exports of services increased by 2.5% on an annualized basis, and exports of other services, excluding tourism and start-ups, decreased by 5.9% on an annualized basis.
Total exports of goods from manufacturing industries excluding diamonds decreased in the third quarter of 2021 by 5.3% on an annualized basis.
On the other hand, there were increases in diamond exports and exports of start-ups, so that total exports of goods and services increased by 7.5%.
Fluctuations in GDP between the various countries (Photo: CBS)
International comparison
As can be seen above, the corona crisis is an international crisis that has affected the world economy.
The opening of the economy and the partial return to routine characterized the various countries and, like Israel, contributed to high fluctuations in GDP during the year.
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