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OECD expects a strong upswing in Germany


Despite delivery bottlenecks and Corona, the German economy is likely to grow by 3.9 percent in the coming year, the experts from the OECD estimate. But inflation threatens to jeopardize the recovery.

Enlarge image

Shopping mile in Cologne (archive image): private consumption as a growth driver

Photo: Oliver Berg / dpa

The fourth corona wave still has Germany firmly under control, and delivery bottlenecks are also causing problems for many companies.

Nonetheless, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) believes the German economy can make a strong recovery: In 2022, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.9 percent, as the industrialized nations organization announced in its outlook.

For comparison: the federal government is anticipating a somewhat stronger plus of 4.1 percent, and the economy even with 4.6 percent.

"We are cautiously optimistic," said OECD economist Isabell Koske of the Reuters news agency.

"But there is enormous uncertainty and risks - from the corona crisis to delivery bottlenecks to inflation."

For 2023, the OECD predicts an increase of 2.2 percent.

For the year that is coming to an end, growth of 2.8 percent is expected.

"The recovery is being hampered by bottlenecks in key inputs in manufacturing," wrote the OECD.

However, given the record order backlog, there could be a strong recovery if the shortage subsides again.

Private consumption should also increase noticeably in the next year.

The low interest rates and the increasing pressure on capacity are encouraging companies to invest heavily.

Inflation is likely to ease in 2022, but will remain at an elevated level.

"The inflation trend remains a risk," said Koske.

»The gas reserves in Europe are at a very low level.

Depending on the course of the winter, there may be further price increases here. "

The delivery bottlenecks could also last longer than expected.

"That could also have an impact on prices," said the expert.

At 5.2 percent, the inflation rate in Germany is currently at its highest level in almost 30 years.

The OECD also anticipates an economic recovery worldwide.

This year, global economic output is expected to grow by 5.6 percent, then by 4.5 percent in 2022 and by 3.2 percent in 2023.


Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2021-12-01

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