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The growth forecast for the fourth quarter slightly lowered by the Banque de France

2021-12-07T20:11:29.960Z


The Banque de France has very slightly revised down its forecast for an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for France in the fourth ...


The Banque de France has very slightly revised downwards its forecast for an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for France in the fourth quarter, according to its latest economic report published on Tuesday.

Read also Omicron variant: the dark scenarios for growth

Thus, growth compared to the 3rd quarter should be

"a little lower"

than 0.75%, and no longer reach this level, as the central bank predicted a month ago, while uncertainties have increased as to the evolution of the epidemic situation. The French economy, which in October exceeded its level of activity at the start of 2020 by half a percentage point, before the health crisis, remained at the same level in November.

This stagnation, in spite of a growth of industry and of all market services, is due to

"an activity which is declining a little bit"

in wholesale and retail trade, transport, as well as accommodation and catering, said the CEO of the Banque de France, Olivier Garnier, during a press briefing.

In December, the level of activity should nevertheless resume its progression to be 0.75 percentage point above the pre-crisis, according to the note.

The 8,500 business leaders interviewed by the bank believe that in December activity will continue to grow in industry and services, and stagnate in construction.

But with the worsening of the fifth wave and the emergence of the Omicron variant

, "there are a little more health uncertainties that could affect the economy during the month of December",

especially at the level of consumption, explains Olivier Garnier.

Difficulties in recruiting

In November, recruitment difficulties increased

"slightly"

and concern about half of the companies, while supply problems remain at high levels in both industry and construction. If in these two sectors these difficulties push production prices up,

“their impact on activity continues to be felt above all in the automotive sector”.

The latter sector, and to a lesser extent aeronautics, are the only two for which the production capacity utilization rate has not returned to its 15-year average.

Finally, the measures announced so far by the government to curb the epidemic have at this stage

"no reason to have a significant impact on the activity"

, estimated the Director General of the Bank of France, adding that it is

the

economic

“behavior of agents”

that could have a negative impact on the economy.

Source: lefigaro

All business articles on 2021-12-07

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