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Commodities: an “uncertain” year 2022 due to fears over Ukraine

2022-01-27T11:29:23.780Z


After the surges in commodity prices in 2021, the year 2022 promises to be very uncertain, between geopolitical tensions in Ukraine,...


After the surges in commodity prices in 2021, the year 2022 promises to be very uncertain, between geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, China's appetite for agricultural imports, and the "

certainty

" of a continuation of the container crisis, indicate the annual forecasts of the CyclOpe circle published on Thursday.

In 2021, all the raw materials analyzed by the Cyclope, barometer of the world raw materials markets, soared, with the exception of pork prices, which fell in China and Europe.

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On the energy side, if in 2021, oil prices have “

healed their wounds

”, those of gas have “

quadrupled on average

”, with a Cyclope index which has gained 397 points. “

Currently, natural gas is twice as expensive as oil in thermal equivalence

” notes for AFP Philippe Chalmin, professor at the University of Paris-Dauphine, who chairs Cyclope. The explanations are initially climatic: a drought in China affected its hydroelectric production, Europe lacked wind for its wind production. But it is above all the tensions between Europe and Russia around the Nordstream II gas pipeline and the increase in LNG (liquefied natural gas) prices in Asia which are at the origin of the surge in gas prices, underlines the report. .

On gas, "

we should not expect, even in the medium term at the prices that prevailed in 2019, and this all the more so as the energy transition will continue

" indicates the Cyclope, pointing to Russia, "

expert in the great diplomatic game

" which "

played the weapon of gas

" both vis-à-vis "

Europe

" and "

China

".

"

If we had the worst, if Russia invaded Ukraine, the barrel of oil would explode the ceiling, and there would be a shortage of gas to be expected in Europe

" points out Philippe Chalmin.

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Last year, the average rise in the overall indicator of the Cyclope covering the evolution of the average price of around forty strategic raw materials (from steel to zyrconium, via aluminium, cocoa, coffee, coal , iron, gas, wool, gold or soy), was 49 points.

That is more than double what the CyclOpe analysts themselves had forecast at the start of the year (+19 points).

An unprecedented increase "

since the financial crisis of 2007

", indicated Philippe Chalmin.

"

Major logistics breakdown

"

"

No one saw the current energy crisis coming, started by gas

", which coincided with a global "

big logistics breakdown " and a "

one-third

" surge in

world agricultural and food prices, compared to 2020, he detailed.

Read alsoMaersk, the Danish shipping giant, expands to air freight

Overall for 2022, excluding major geopolitical or climatic event, "

and assuming a soft landing of the Covid crisis

", the Cyclope expects a return to normal, or even price reductions on certain products in due in particular to the slowdown in Chinese growth. In total, he predicts that the rise in commodity prices will be limited to 4% on average. But it is a "

year full of uncertainties

", warned Philippe Chalmin, and "

a little more than the other years

".

On the agricultural and food side, the Cyclope points out that “

the risks of social instability have once again become a reality

” with soaring food prices.

But for the major importing countries (Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Indonesia), the bill for 2021 could be financed by the increase in revenues linked to oil and especially gas.

The sharp increases in foodstuffs last year are mainly due to China, which in 2021 became the world's largest importer of cereals, notably by increasing its purchases of corn by 152%, which in turn pushed prices up.

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Regarding the maritime freight crisis, "

no sign of improvement

" is discerned.

On the contrary, the bottlenecks are getting stronger with the expansion of Omicron

,” notes the analysis.

As of early January 2022, 11.5 million containers were on hold at the world’s 13 largest ports

,” according to the report, which predicts “

container freight rates will remain high

” in 2022, with delays that “

will only begin to shrink if the pandemic declines sharply in Asia

.”

Source: lefigaro

All business articles on 2022-01-27

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