"Trees don't go up to the sky", economists often answer on many subjects, whether it's growth or the valuation of a stock.
But fuel prices, which are breaking records from week to week, how high will they rise?
Very smart who can say it, and the economists do not jostle at the gate to try a prognosis… “I do not have a crystal ball”, dodge several of them.
One thing is certain, this Monday, the verdict for the first days of February fell.
On February 4, according to the latest official tally from the Ministry of Ecological Transition, diesel was displayed on average at 1.68 euros / liter, unleaded 95-E10 at 1.73 euros / l and unleaded 98 to 1.82 euro/l.
"We could be in a period of stabilization at this level," says Olivier Gantois, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries (Ufip).
So much for the optimistic scenario, that of the “high plateau”.
Because the pessimistic scenario predicts that prices will rise further.
“I experienced even higher prices for a barrel of oil, around 150 dollars (
131 euros)
after September 11 or during the 2007-2008 crisis, warns Francis Pousse, the president of fuel distributors (excluding large surfaces) at the National Council for Automotive Professions (CNPA).
Today, the barrel is at 92.62 dollars (
80 euros)
, it can increase.
“With a mechanical increase effect on diesel and gasoline prices…
The government rejects any reduction in taxation
At the pump, the flights have been linked for several weeks, and motorists are finding it increasingly difficult to fill the tank.
In fact, the price of crude oil "has gone from 77 dollars (
67 euros)
at the start of the year to 92 dollars (
80 euros)
today", deciphers Olivier Gantois.
"The current situation is linked to the good health of the world economy", he continues, characterized, despite Omicron, by a strong need for fuels.
The ace !
As demand continues to grow, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, one of the world's main producers, have renewed "their agreement for a moderate increase in production", with the aim of maintain their margin.
Read alsoRise in fuel prices: “I will soon have to use my Livret A to fill up”
In other words, the heat stroke at the service station may last longer.
Except to bet on a rebound, of the type lowering the taxation on fuels, but the hypothesis was recently ruled out by Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of Economy and Finance.
Since 2014, "the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE) and VAT have increased the price of fuel by 20 cents", nevertheless argues the CNPA representative.
So many French people have adapted their consumption, and drive less, confide the fuel distribution professionals, without giving figures.
You still have to be able to do it, but it is undoubtedly "the best solution to keep control of your budget", says a gas station attendant, in a context that is more uncertain than ever.
“Imagine that Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border, that an American embargo hits Russian oil, and prices could break their current records!
worries an oil industrialist.
