The number of companies unable to honor their state-guaranteed loan (PGE) will be lower than expected.
The Treasury Department has just revised downwards its default estimates.
It expects that 3.1% of the 143 billion euros in outstanding PGEs will not be reimbursed.
This is far from the feared 5.3% a year ago and 3.8% in August.
Companies are benefiting from much more sustained growth than anticipated.
And half of those holding a PGE have still not touched it or only partially.
For the State, this translates into a reduction in expected losses (4.65 billion against 8 billion euros a year ago).
See also
Bruno Le Maire extends state-guaranteed loans until the end of June 2022
However, some companies will find it difficult to honor their debt.
The approach of the first repayment deadlines also worries tourism professionals.
In this sector, 29% of hotels (16,000) and 39% of cafes and restaurants (82,000) have subscribed to PGEs, representing more than 10 billion euros in outstandings, according to Bercy.
However, companies in difficulty can obtain from their bank a spreading of their PGE over ten years.
And postpone the first repayment deadlines by six months (to October 2022).
Extending the life of these loans is similar to debt restructuring.
But the consequences should be somewhat limited for companies that have borrowed less than 50,000 euros (60% of the 697,000 with a PGE).
As they are not rated by the Banque de France (their turnover being less than 750,000 euros), only their banks are aware of this reorganization (free and confidential).
And they will continue to have access to state aid and public procurement.
