World concern about wheat from Russia and Ukraine

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Grain farmers in Brandenburg: Germany is not dependent on grain imports, but needs fertilizer

Photo: Patrick Pleul/ picture alliance/dpa

According to Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens), the supply of wheat and agricultural products within the EU is secured despite the war in Ukraine.

"Supply within the EU is not at risk," Özdemir said on Wednesday.

The agriculture ministers of the EU member states were to meet virtually for an informal meeting on Wednesday.

According to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the topic is the situation on the agricultural markets after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

According to figures from the ministry, Russia is responsible for 10 percent and Ukraine for another 4 percent of global wheat exports.

However, customers are primarily the countries in North Africa, Turkey and countries in Asia.

The EU and Germany therefore have a degree of self-sufficiency of 100 percent, which means that the supply in the EU is not at risk.

When fertilizer becomes more expensive

The effects of the crisis on the agricultural markets are still being closely monitored.

"Worldwide, price increases for agricultural raw materials and fertilizers are to be expected, not least because of the sharp rise in energy costs," Özdemir continued.

It cannot be ruled out that consumer prices will also rise.

Wheat prices had recently reached record highs on the global market.

On the European exchange Euronext, a ton of wheat was traded for 354 euros on Wednesday.

Only at the end of February did the wheat price reach a record high due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, various aid organizations and associations are warning of the consequences of the Ukraine war for food production.

Because more than half of the food that the World Food Program of the United Nations (WFP) distributes in crisis regions, according to its own information, comes from Ukraine.

»Putin's war is not only covering Ukraine with immeasurable suffering.

The effects will be felt far beyond the region's borders,” said WFP Germany Director Martin Frick.

The WFP is active in more than 80 countries.

Almost 280 million people are already affected by acute hunger.

The world cannot afford another conflict.

The German Farmers' Association recently announced that nitrogen fertilizer is already very expensive and scarce.

The nitrogen fertilizer, which is important for farmers, is made from natural gas – so if gas prices continue to rise due to the escalation, this would also drive up the costs for farmers.

For countries in Africa, North Africa and West Asia, wheat imports are of much greater importance.

For example, the cost of food was an important factor in the so-called Arab Spring, a series of mass protests.

"Social stability in these countries depends on the price of bread," says Martin Banse, agricultural expert and head of the Thünen Institute for Market Analysis.

Expensive bread could fuel political unrest

Egypt – the most populous country in the Arab world with more than 100 million people – imports much of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

The same applies to Tunisia.

Poor people in particular there are in dire need of bread.

Experts in Tunisia are already warning of sharp price increases due to the war.

In the future, grain could come from Argentina or Romania, for example – but it is unclear whether that will be enough.

Other countries in West Asia face similar problems.

Turkey bought around 65 percent of its wheat from Russia in 2020.

Deteriorating relations with Moscow could make imports more expensive.

If, for example, bread prices rise again - Turkey is currently suffering from particularly high inflation - this could also further fuel anger at President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government.

According to agricultural expert Banse, a possible supply gap cannot be closed by the EU in the short term.

Although it had long been an important supplier of wheat for these countries, it was then pushed out of the market by Ukraine and Russia.

In addition, the storage facilities in the EU are not particularly well filled.

"The warehouses are currently, I don't want to say empty, but quite empty, so that Europe cannot quickly step into the breach here," emphasizes Banse.

mamk/AFP/dpa