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Assembly in e-car production
Photo: Sebastian Kahnert / dpa
The mood in the executive floors is darkening, the economy is likely to be severely slowed down - and yet the German labor market is expected to remain remarkably stable this year: the number of unemployed will fall by 350,000 in 2022, predicts the Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research (IAB), the research institute of the Federal Employment Agency (BA).
In addition, the number of people in employment will increase by as much as 510,000 this year.
This would mean that there would be exactly as many people in work in the second quarter as there were before the corona crisis.
There is likely to be even greater growth in jobs subject to social security contributions, which are expected to increase by 520,000 to 34.42 million.
"That would set a new record," said Enzo Weber, head of the IAB research department.
»The number of part-time employees is likely to exceed the ten million mark for the first time in 2022.«
According to the IAB, there will be an increase in employment in almost all sectors of the economy.
This should be the highest in the public service as well as in educational and health professions.
In the areas of trade, transport and hospitality, which are particularly affected by the pandemic, 190,000 jobs will be added, and the IAB assumes 20,000 more people for construction.
In industry, on the other hand, the number of employees is likely to fall by around 10,000 because they are particularly affected by the disruptions in supply chains, high energy prices and the consequences of the Ukraine war.
The IAB assumes that Russia's attack on Ukraine will have a significant impact on the German economy.
"While the economic prospects were optimistic at the beginning of the year, the global economic upswing is being slowed down as a result of the Ukraine war," says Weber.
The IAB forecast is based on the assumption that the war will not end quickly, but will not lead to a major escalation either.
The IAB researchers write that as the pandemic subsides, more and more people will return to the labor market.
Together with immigration to Germany, this should increase the labor pool by 150,000 people this year.
"If refugees from Ukraine stay longer, there would be additional effects on the potential labor force, employment and unemployment," said Weber.
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