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ECB warns of even more inflation and even less growth

2022-03-31T12:24:52.030Z


The ECB has been reassuring for a long time - but now the central bank can no longer deny the wave of inflation. The deputy chief warns inflation could rise even further.


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ECB headquarters in Frankfurt am Main: dark clouds

Photo: RALPH ORLOWSKI/ REUTERS

In view of the Ukraine shock, the ECB is also preparing for a further increase in inflation and an economic downturn in the short term.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said he hoped that price increases would peak within a few months.

Inflation is then expected to ease in the second half of the year.

However, the consumer price data for March due on Friday would be higher than in February.

"In March we will feel the effects of the war," he added, referring to the sharp rise in energy and commodity prices in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Growth could drop to zero

For the inflation data for March, experts expect a new record value of 6.6 percent in the euro area, after 5.9 percent in February.

The economists expect an inflation rate of 6.1 percent for Germany in 2022, but also think double-digit values ​​are possible in the next few months if there is a source of Russian energy.

With regard to the economy, De Guindos does not expect the euro zone to slip into recession in the short term.

In his opinion, however, only slight growth is to be expected for the first quarter and almost stagnation for the second quarter.

In March, the inflation rate in Germany was already expected to rise to 7.3 percent compared to the same month last year.

It thus reached the highest level for more than 40 years, as the Federal Statistical Office announced in an initial estimate.

The last time the rate was similarly high in Germany was in autumn 1981, driven by the consequences of the first Gulf War.

In February of this year, the inflation rate was still 5.1 percent.

A significantly higher inflation rate had been expected due to the sharp rise in energy prices, but economists had expected an increase to "only" 6.3 percent.

However, since the Russian attack on Ukraine, refueling and heating have become significantly more expensive.

This affects companies as well as private individuals.

beb/Reuters

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2022-03-31

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