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Compressor station in Werne: With 23 percent, Russia was the most important supplier country for Europeans in March
Photo: INA FASSBENDER / AFP
While politicians were discussing a possible gas boycott against Russia, more Russian gas flowed to Europe in March than before.
According to calculations by the London analysis company ICIS, which are available to SPIEGEL, the Russian state pipeline monopoly Gazprom delivered at least 10.14 billion cubic meters of natural gas to customers in the EU and Great Britain in the first full month of the war.
That was a good quarter more than in February (8.09 billion) - and even 36 percent more than in January (7.43 billion).
The ICIS analysis does not include the values for the three Baltic Republics and Finland;
however, imports from these countries are relatively small and hardly influence the trend.
LNG imports break historic records
With a share of 23 percent, Russia was the most important supplier country for the Europeans, just ahead of Norway (10.08 billion cubic meters).
Imports via LNG terminals were even higher at 12.93 billion cubic meters.
According to ICIS, the liquefied, deep-frozen natural gas came largely from the USA;
but there were also deliveries from a Russian LNG project.
The sharp increase in imports from Russia in the midst of the war reveals how difficult a European gas boycott would be to implement.
"In order to compensate for the shortfalls, LNG imports would have to be increased again by 7 to 10 billion cubic meters per month," ICIS chief gas strategist Tom Marzec-Manser told SPIEGEL, "and they have recently reached historic records."
In January, the Europeans imported 13.76 billion cubic meters via the terminals;
in the future it should be at least 20 billion a month.
Marzec-Manser believes that this is hardly achievable with the current infrastructure.
The main reason for the higher demand for Russian fuel is – of all things – the recent price jumps on Europe's gas exchanges.
On March 7, a megawatt hour on the Dutch reference market TTF cost up to 345 euros;
currently it is around 110 euros.
Until last year, 5 to 40 euros were usual.
"The prices on the spot market were significantly higher than the prices that Gazprom and its customers agreed in long-term supply contracts," says Marzec-Manser.
"That's an incentive for customers to make full use of their long-term contracts." In addition to a fixed minimum delivery quantity, the contracts often include an option for the customer to order more gas at the fixed price.
Apparently, many buyers opted for this option.
In the first two weeks of March, just after the invasion began, their purchases at Gazprom skyrocketed to the highest levels since mid-December, according to ICIS data.
Russian gas cannot be completely replaced by higher imports from other countries, says Marzec-Manser.
Norway and Azerbaijan could still slightly increase their pipeline supplies, "and the only other big source is LNG."
Pipelines to Central Europe are too small
But there are already infrastructure bottlenecks here.
Spain could import significantly more LNG.
It has six liquefied natural gas terminals - Germany, on the other hand, does not have a single one.
However, only two relatively small gas pipelines lead from the Iberian Peninsula towards Central Europe.
And according to Marzec-Manser, these are already largely utilized.
Not much more is possible.
Even the EU's goal of reducing imports from Russia by two thirds by the end of the year, the expert considers hardly compatible with the EU requirement that the gas storage facilities of the member states must be at least 80 percent full by November 1st.
According to Marzec-Manser, both at the same time can at best be achieved with very high exchange prices and/or a significantly reduced consumption of natural gas in Europe.
