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Freighter entering the port of Hamburg: end of the trade boom?
Photo: IMAGO/Markus Tischler
According to an analysis by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Russian war against Ukraine could cost the global economy up to 1.3 percentage points of growth this year.
According to model calculations, gross domestic product should only grow by 3.1 to 3.7 percent in 2022, wrote the WTO in an analysis of the consequences of the war for trade.
The organization cites higher food and energy prices and falling exports from Russia and Ukraine as the reason.
"Poorer countries are exposed to great risks from the war because they spend a larger part of their income on food than richer countries," it said.
“That could have consequences for political stability.”
In October, the WTO was still expecting world trade to grow by 4.7 percent this year.
According to new calculations, this could be almost halved, the trade organization now predicts.
Energy and grain aren't the only challenges
It's not just about Russian and Ukrainian exports of energy, grain and sunflower products.
Russia is one of the main suppliers of palladium and rhodium for the production of catalytic converters for cars, Ukraine supplies neon to the semiconductor industry.
The organization warns of negative consequences if the global economy breaks up into trading blocs and countries focus more on self-sufficiency in production and trade.
That harms the competition and stifles innovation.
The consequences would be particularly serious for developing and emerging countries.
But the European economy is also facing major challenges.
"Europe, as the main buyer of Russian and Ukrainian exports, will feel the economic impact most severely," writes the WTO.
German exporters are becoming more cautious
German exporters are already dealing with the aftermath of the war.
Problems such as delivery bottlenecks or high energy and transport costs have worsened significantly, according to a survey by the credit insurer Allianz Trade.
Nevertheless, many companies continue to expect an increase in sales this year.
However, the number of optimists fell after the Russian attack on Ukraine.
"The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the renewed outbreak of Covid-19 in China hit world trade twice as hard with lower volumes and higher prices," said Ana Boata, economist at Allianz Trade.
Due to detours due to the war and port closures, there are long transport times.
"This means that delays and high freight rates will remain in world trade longer than originally expected - also due to the high energy prices."
About 80 percent of the companies surveyed see the high energy prices as a challenge for their export activities.
More than half (52 percent) expect costs to continue to rise.
As a result of the global economic recovery after the Corona crisis in 2020, energy prices had already risen significantly.
After the beginning of the war, there were further price jumps.
No relaxation expected
According to the survey, about twice as many exporters as before the Ukraine war are now worried about increasing payment defaults (58 percent) by customers and disruptions to the supply chains (47 percent).
Added to this are the sharp rises in transport costs.
"Most German companies assume that there will be no signs of relaxation in transport costs or times in 2022," reported Milo Bogaerts, head of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
More than half of the companies (53 percent) assume that the situation will worsen with the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict."
Before the start of the war, this was only the case for about every third company.
mmq/dpa
