Germany is threatened with an economic downturn if Russian gas imports are stopped

Frankfurt-Sana

The major German economic forecast institutes warned today that Germany may face an economic downturn in 2023 if the import of Russian gas is stopped immediately against the backdrop of sanctions imposed on Moscow.

And Agence France-Presse quoted the six institutes in force as saying, “The gross domestic product of the first economic power in Europe will decline by 2.2 percent in the event of stopping gas supplies, on which Germany depends in particular, and the cumulative decline for the years 2022 and 2023 will reach about 220 billion euros, which represents 6.5 percent of annual wealth.

The GDP decline could reach 5 percent in the second half of next year.

Germany does not expect to dispense with Russian gas before mid-2024, and at the end of March it did the first phase of its emergency plan to ensure the supply of natural gas in the face of the risk of stopping Russian supplies.

In total, the institutes indicated that the German economy is going through a phase of fluctuations, at a time when the lifting of restrictions imposed to combat the epidemic allowed to revive economic activity.

She explained that supply chains are still under pressure at a time when China is imposing new restrictions and while the war in Ukraine is causing "negative consequences" on the economy, both in terms of supply and demand.

The consequences of the war forced the institutes to reduce their growth forecasts in 2022 to 2.7 percent, compared to 4.8 percent in October, and the matter is reflected in the inflation rate, which is expected to reach 6.1 percent this year, and perhaps even to 7.3 percent in the event of stopping gas supplies, which is the highest rate since the establishment of Federal Republic.

As for the year 2023, the percentage will reach 5 percent in the event of stopping supplies and 2.8 percent if they continue.

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