Enlarge image
Gas compressor station in Mallnow (Brandenburg).
This is where the Yamal pipeline arrives, one of the three main gas pipelines from Russia
Photo: Patrick Pleul / dpa
The spring-like weather and higher storage levels ensure some relaxation on Europe's gas markets.
On the Dutch wholesale reference market TTF, one megawatt hour (MWh) of natural gas for delivery in May on Tuesday morning was sometimes EUR 85 – despite the looming Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.
This corresponds to 8.5 cents per kilowatt hour and was the lowest level since Russia invaded the neighboring country.
In March, a megawatt hour of natural gas temporarily cost up to 345 euros;
At that time, buyers feared an acute bottleneck.
"The panic is out of the market for the time being," Tobias Federico, head of the Berlin analysis house Energy Brainpool, told SPIEGEL.
The weather also contributes to this.
When temperatures rise, the need for heating falls.
At the same time, considerable amounts of natural gas have been coming to Europe for weeks: as liquefied natural gas with LNG tankers, but also via pipelines from Russia.
»The panic is gone now.«
Tobias Federico, Energy Brainpool
And so the gas storage tanks are slowly filling up.
In Germany, the average filling level has increased from 24 to almost 31 percent in the past 30 days;
EU-wide from 26 to 29 percent.
Even in the event of a gas embargo, industry and private consumers could draw on these reserves for some time: especially now, in the warmer months of the year.
"We are reaching a price level that is fundamentally justified in this situation," said Federico.
"The market in Europe is approaching the LNG market in Asia." Gas currently costs the equivalent of around 80 euros per MWh there.
Experts expect a race between consumers in Europe and Asia for the coveted liquefied natural gas in the coming months and years - and therefore no price decline to previous levels.
Compared to normal times, despite the recent price drop, natural gas is extremely expensive;
until last year, the wholesale fuel cost between 5 and 40 euros per MWh.
And: Upward swings are possible at any time, as was also shown on Tuesday.
When it became known that the Russian state monopoly Gazprom had not reserved any capacity for the smallest of its three pipelines to Central Europe for May, the price rose to 94 euros per MWh by midday.
It will probably be even more expensive for end users
End consumers must continue to adjust to rising tariffs.
"The high energy prices will only fully reach private electricity and gas customers with a slight delay," says Steffen Suttner, Managing Director Energy of the comparison portal Check24.
»Because when the energy suppliers procured before the crisis are used up, they will have to buy even more at the currently expensive market prices.«
According to the comparison portal Check24, a model household with a consumption of 20 MWh already pays an average of 2902 euros per year for gas - 130 percent more than in April 2021 (1264 euros).
